By Anand James
Where are We? Start of last week saw the Nifty bouncing off the 200-DMA mark, only to face stiff resistance from the 100-DMA and turn lower. Most of the gains were wiped off by end of the week, but by then atleast 50 per cent of the most active stocks had bounced off their respective 200-DMAs. The Nifty at one point was seen down 1.6 per cent, almost double the losses of Nifty Bank’s, as ex-date of corporate actions of several of Nifty50 stocks fell in these days.
What is in Store? Central bank decisions and G20 outcome could influence the opening trades, with markets looking forward to the first press conference of the new Fed chairman. Risk appetite should be low in the early part of the week. Last week’s rise having happened by the mid of the expiry month, much of the bear positioning that has been the main theme over the last one month or so, were seen being exited. To this end, directional moves may wait, and volatility within short ranges could dominate most of next week. Fresh positions were seen to be few, and limited to Call longs in a few OTM strikes suggesting upside expectations are still alive, albeit feeble. To this end, 10,600-10,000 is the expected range for next week, with low expectations of a breakout.
What could Investors Do? Housing finance should continue to show resilience, and so should mid-cap IT. Consumer goods, food & beverages, diary etc. may see upsides being challenged. Meanwhile, telecom stocks should find buying interest, though the sustainability is doubted.
(The author is Chief market strategist, Geojit financial services.)