Where are We? Optimism is low and fear is peaking. Usually, the approach of earning season is welcomed by a rise. But, this was seen missing ahead of Q2 season, despite considering the low-base we had after the month-long fall in September. Earnings released so far have not been exiting enough to change sentiments and the Nifty has lost almost 9 per cent now in October so far.
What is in Store? Dips next week towards 9,800 are likely to be short lived, encouraging shorts to be covered inviting a bear rally possibly aiming at 10,500-10,800. This is the favoured view. Alternate scenario sees the Nifty pulling back to 10,200, in a hurry, and without initial dips, which could only aid more distribution, and set the tone for the next plunge beyond 9,500.
What you Could Do? Optimistic on banks, paints. NBFCs and HFCs pull backs if any, can be sold into. Can also be cautiously optimistic on FMCG, but with limited upside expectation.
The author is Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Financial Services