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Market outlook: Nifty to consolidate bit more but downside limited

As expected, Indian equity market took a breather, as it sev..

As expected, Indian equity market took a breather, as it severely consolidated in a much capped range on Wednesday, and traded without any directional bias.

The benchmark Index Nifty50 spent the entire session in a much capped ranged and ended the day on a flat note, gaining just 2.30 points or 0.02 per cent.

Going into trade on Thursday, we enter the expiry day of the current derivative series. A flat start can be expected along with a good amount of volatility owing to rollover.

Despite some stock-specific outperformances, we expect the market to face very stiff resistance at current levels. There are heightened chances that it may witness some corrective activity at higher levels with limited downsides.

The levels of 11,105 and 11,165 will continue to play out as immediate resistance. Supports come in much lower at 10,955 and 10,910 zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 82.5918 and though it has went on to mark a fresh 14-period high, which is bullish, it trades in highly overbought territory. The daily MACD is bullish, while trading above its signal line. No significant formations were seen on candles.

The pattern analysis shows that after the breakout above 10,490-mark, the Nifty has achieved the levels, which are higher than the otherwise expected measured implications.

Though this shows uptrend firmly in place, we cannot ignore few technical inputs, which point towards the market slipping into some short term consolidation.

Despite the current uptrend remaining firmly in place, we cannot ignore the extremely overbought nature of the lead indicators on the daily charts. The Nifty PCR (Put-to-Call Ratio) currently stands near 1.90, which is highly overbought. Also, the India VIX (Volatility Index) is at its fresh high and rose nearly 11.19 per cent while the market ended flat. All these point towards consolidation in a broad range starting anytime soon.

Though the downsides may be limited, but volatile oscillations in the market cannot be ruled out. We recommend keeping exposures very light and adopting highly cautious view on the market.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Stocks like Ashok Leyland, Markans Pharma, Sun Pharma, NMDC, Jamna Auto, Exide Industries, Apollo Tyres, Den Networks, and IRB Infrastructure have resilient technical setups and may relatively out-perform the general markets.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at [email protected])

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