The previous trading session on Friday saw the markets not making major moves as it oscillated in a defined and limited range and ended with minor losses.
After opening on a negative note, the markets soon recovered all its opening losses. Thereafter, the Nifty spent the session moving back and forth in a 50-odd point range. While making no major move on either side, the benchmark index ended the day losing 13.20 points (- 0.12 per cent).
Though the session remained range bound, what was technically important was that the Nifty could not breach the falling trend line resistance of the channel it has created. It was unable to move past the 10,600-10,650 area and continued to resist while pushing itself into some consolidation.
As we step into Mondays trade, this pattern resistance of a falling trend line and the important 10,600-10,650 resistance zone is likely to pose stiff resistance to the markets. We expect a tepid and soft start to the trade and the behaviour of the markets vis-à-vis these levels will be important to watch out for.
Monday is likely to see the level of 10,650 and 10,690 acting as stiff resistance area while supports are expected to come in at 10,540 and 10,465.
The Daily RSI is currently at 52.4418 and it stays neutral showing no divergence against the price. The Daily MACD stays bullish while trading above its signal line.
The pattern analysis reveals that the Nifty is now oscillating in a falling channel while it has been struggling hard to form and confirm a base for itself. For the Nifty to try and move out of this resisting formation, it will be important for the index to move past the 10,600-10,650 zones and sustain above that.
Overall, as we expect a quiet start to the trade. We also expect the Nifty to continue to struggle to move past the defined resistance area of 10,600-10,650 levels. The Nifty not only needs to move past this zone, but has to sustain and move further from this area. Unless this happens, we will continue to see the markets consolidating and continuing to witness volatile oscillations from higher levels.
We recommend avoiding shorts and at the same time continue keeping fresh purchases at modest levels. Unless the critical resistance areas are successfully penetrated, more focus should be kept on protecting profits at higher levels.
(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan[email protected])
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