Markets

Market outlook: Pullback rally to continue but Nifty’s upside seems capped

Volatility ruled the roost on Thursday as the benchmark Nifty50 swung either side in a highly volatile manner and finally ended the day with a gain of 59.15 points or 0.58 per cent.

The market has reinforced the credibility of the support of 50-DMA at closing levels, and also that of 10,180-10,200 range support area. Before ending the benchmark Index recovered nearly 110 points from the lows of the day.

Going into trade on Friday, we expect this pullback to continue. The exit polls’ outcome of the BJP retaining power in Gujarat will also sentimentally aid the session on Friday.

In any case, the levels of 10,330-10,360 still require to be crucially monitored. The levels of 10,310 and 10,360 will act as immediate resistance area for the market. Supports come in at 10,200 and 10,135 zones.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is 50.9371 and it continues to remain neutral showing no divergences against the price. The daily MACD stays bearish, trading below its signal line, but it is moving very sharply towards positive crossover.

On the candles, a long lower shadow emerged. It potentially marks a reversal of the trend. It remains significant, as it has emerged near the support zone of 10,180-10,200 area. The pattern analysis shows that the Nifty has reinforced the validity of the support area of 10,180-10,200 area.

Despite minor breach, the index recovered. It has also reinforced the validity of the support of 50-DMA levels at closing level.

While we face Friday’s trade, a positive opening aided by outcome of all exit polls, which favour BJP retaining the power in Gujarat may not be ruled out,

However, on the upper side the resistance still exit in the area of 10,330-10,360. The Nifty continues to trade in a falling channel, which has emerged as an intermediate trend.

We recommend making very select purchases. Cautiously positive outlook is advised for the day.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Short covering was witnessed on stocks like Idea, Tata Power, Tata Motors, Bank Of Baroda, BHEL, Petronet, DHFL, HDIL and Reliance.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA is Consultant Technical Analyst at Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, Vadodara. He can be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)

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