Markets

Four catalysts that led to the latest crash in oil prices

Oil took another tumble overnight, as front-month Brent crude futures slumped more than 6 per cent to around $US62.50 a barrel.

It marks a new nine-month low, and oil prices have now crashed by almost 30 per cent from their October highs.

US WTI futures were also hit hard, falling by 6.7 per cent to $US53.36 a barrel. And based on the price action on the S&P500 overnight, its shaping up as a rough day for Australian energy stocks when the ASX200 opens at 10am AEDT.

CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar highlighted four catalysts behind the recent decline in his morning research note.

Firstly, he pinpointed where this all began — the Trump administrations decision to grant a 180-day waiver for eight countries which allowed them to continue importing oil from Iran.

Previously, markets had been preparing for a blanket ban on Iran oil exports once the US sanctions kicked in at the start of November.

So around 1.5 per cent of global oil supply that was “previously at risk of leaving the market” is still in circulation, Dhar said.

As a result, the “surprise decision” has left market participants scrambling to readjust their outlook.

Dhar added that last nights falls were “accentuated with Russias reluctance to commit to production cuts ahead of a meeting with OPEC and allies on December 6 .

He said Russia would rather take a more patient approach to see how the market balances out, rather than cut production immediately.

In addition, there was increasing speculation overnight that US oil inventories are set to rise for the ninth straight week.

And lastly, Dhar said the “sell-off in global equities also contributed to lower oil prices”.

The ongoing declines in oil are expected to flow through to cheaper prices at the petrol pump for Australian motorists before the end of the month.

Original Article