By Subhadip Sircar
Rupee bulls should put to rest any hope of a respite for Asias worst currency in the last few days of whats been a dreadful year.
This weeks shock departure of Indias central bank chief and defeat for Prime Minister Narendra Modis ruling party in key state elections have dealt a double blow to the currency, taking its year-to-date loss to 11 percent. Mizuho Bank Ltd. is expecting more pain.
The rupee may drop to about 73 per dollar as Urjit Patels resignation leads foreign investors to fret over the Reserve Bank of Indias independence and policy continuity, according to Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at the lender in Tokyo. A break of that level may open the door for a slide to 74, he said.
While the government has rushed to appoint Shaktikanta Das — a former bureaucrat — as the new RBI governor, investors would want to see if that resolves differences seen between the central bank and the administration in the run up to Patels exit.
They will also have to contend with political uncertainty after Modis Bharatiya Janata Party faced defeat in three key states, helping his main opponents seize back momentum ahead of Indias 2019 national vote. The loss amounts to Modis biggest political setback since taking office in 2014.
“A potential implication from BJP not having a strong hold in state elections would be the risk of more populist policies” which may add to Indias fiscal slippage, said Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. That — along with any potential change in the RBIs monetary-policy stance due to the appointment of a new governor — “does not bode well for the rupee,” she said.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch is also predicting short-term weakness for the rupee, which slid 1.5 percent over the last two days to close at 71.8575 per dollar on Tuesday.
The currency will depreciate also because “oil prices have bottomed for the time being,” Adarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia rates and currency strategy at BofAML, said on Bloomberg Television. “Over the next three to four months, its going to be tough going for the Indian rupee heading into the general election where there is some uncertainty around the BJP has to form a coalition or not.”
Sinha said the central bank could cut rates as soon as February, partly because inflation has undershot its target “quite considerably.” Theres a “justifiable case for the RBI to ease monetary policy irrespective of who the governor was,” he said.