Dubai – Crude oil prices rose during Wednesday trading on October 7, 2026, extending gains to a second consecutive session amid growing fears of supply shortages. The market is currently weighing supply constraints caused by a storm heading toward US oil production areas against Houthi attacks supported by Iran in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia, while simultaneously factoring in increased exports from the Middle East.
Storm Threatens Gulf Production
Offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico, located in the storm’s path, produce 15% of US crude oil and 5% of the country’s natural gas. Weather experts stated that a developing storm will become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days, likely striking oil and gas facilities. Tim Water, chief analyst at KCM Trade, described the storm as an unwanted complication for crude, increasing the probability of production and refining disruptions in a market already facing supply issues.
Price Movements and Inventory Data
By 05:54 GMT, December 2026 Brent futures rose 0.60% to $101.18 per barrel. November 2026 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts gained 0.53% to reach $89.91 per barrel. These figures are tracked in real-time by the Washington-based Energy Platform. Earlier Tuesday sessions saw both benchmarks rise slightly, with Brent up 0.3% and WTI up 0.01%, as security risks in the Middle East continued to threaten supplies.
EIA Revises Forecasts Upward
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2026 oil price forecasts, projecting a Brent average spot price of $96.32 per barrel, a 5.8% increase from September estimates of $91.01. It also boosted WTI estimates by 4.2% to $88.21 per barrel. Near-term expectations suggest Brent could average $105 in Q4 2026, despite increased Gulf exports.
Saudi Infrastructure and Regional Tensions
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced the East-West pipeline reached 5.8 million barrels daily. Meanwhile, Vitol reported 12 million barrels of crude and 2 million barrels of refined products left the Middle East in the last week. However, airports in Jazan and Najran were targeted Monday night by Houthi forces, escalating hostilities as Yemeni government forces launched major offensives to reclaim territory.
Market Outlook Remains Tight
ING commodity strategists noted the market remains tense regarding potential supply disruptions, citing ongoing ship attacks. Mukesh Sahdev of X Analysts warned that refinery outages would keep product cracks high, shifting shortages to crude. He predicted prices would stay near $100 without significant drops. Diplomatic relations remain strained, with President Trump stating uncertainty over Iranian leadership following recent conflicts.
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.
