Dubai – Brent crude futures for December delivery surged toward $103 per barrel on Monday, October 5, 2026, extending gains from the previous week. The rally occurred against a backdrop of warnings regarding the potential collapse of global oil inventories.
Trading began with slight declines, supported by increased crude exports from the Middle East and pledges by the Group of Seven nations to release millions of barrels from emergency reserves. However, fears regarding ongoing disruptions linked to the US-Israeli war on Iran bolstered prices and limited selling pressure.
Futures for Brent finished Friday’s session down 0.06% at $102.25 per barrel but recorded weekly gains of 4.9%. By 11:10 AM GMT, standard Brent December 2026 contracts rose 0.52% to $102.78. Conversely, US West Texas Intermediate November 2026 contracts fell 0.55% to $90.61.
Aramco CEO Warns of Two-Year Recovery Timeline
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, stated at the Energy Intelligence conference in London that crude and refined fuel supplies will remain constrained. He estimated that refilling global reserves after emergency draws could take two years, noting approximately three billion barrels lost since the conflict began.
Nasser highlighted that while one billion barrels were withdrawn from storage to offset market shortages, most came from commercial reserves. Remaining facility stocks stand at six billion barrels, though not all are immediately available for use due to logistical constraints.
Rising Diesel Prices and Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices received support from a surge in diesel futures on the Intercontinental Exchange, rising over 4% to $1,409 per metric ton. Tamás Varga, assistant analyst at PVM Oil, attributed this to suspended Chinese product exports, tightening refined supply in the Far East.
Varga noted that a Middle East ceasefire remains distant. Continued hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iranian-backed Houthis ensure high geopolitical risk premiums, sustaining attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping lanes.
OPEC+ Postpones Production Quota Review
The OPEC+ alliance delayed its review of production quotas for 2027 members. The Iranian war has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, creating uncertainty regarding future production potential estimates.
Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais, retaliating for fifty Saudi airstrikes in Yemen over twelve hours. Meanwhile, Yemeni government forces attacked Houthi positions near the Bab al-Mandab strait following a campaign to reclaim territory.
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.
