Dubai – Oil prices declined by more than 1 percent during trading on Monday, November 9, 2026, continuing losses from the previous week. This drop coincided with growing optimism about easing geopolitical tensions after US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of launching new strikes on Iran. Despite this, attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in the spotlight.
Trump Signals De-escalation While Risks Remain
Trump stated on Sunday that it is unlikely he would order new attacks on Iran as long as talks to end the conflict progress. This comes even though both countries reported shipping vessels were attacked in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices had ended Friday’s session higher amid volatility and anticipation of developments in the Middle East, but recorded significant weekly losses.
Futures Decline as Weekly Losses Mount
By 06:20 GMT, standard Brent crude futures for January 2027 delivery fell 1.41 percent to $96.93 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude for December 2026 dropped 0.76 percent to $90.14 per barrel, according to real-time figures tracked by Washington-based Energy Platform. Brent suffered a weekly loss of 16.4 percent, its largest since the start of the pandemic, while WTI fell 12.8 percent.
Analysts Weigh Diplomatic Hopes Against Military Threats
Sauganda Sachdeva of SS Wealth Street noted that despite recent optimism about diplomatic breakthroughs, underlying geopolitical risks remain high. She warned that military escalation cannot be ruled out, suggesting markets are pricing in a relatively optimistic de-escalation scenario despite no comprehensive agreement between Washington and Tehran.
JPMorgan Forecasts Supply Surplus
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Trump hinted at resuming attacks after midterm elections, yet no signs of large-scale US military action appeared. Iran vowed to strike US and Israeli targets. KCM Trade analyst Tim Water described Trump’s remarks as “more measured,” noting markets await to see if midterms signal a permanent shift in policy or just temporary rhetoric.
JPMorgan stated oil is trending toward a surplus again. Recovery in Middle Eastern flows, higher production elsewhere, and weak demand pushed global supply above consumption. The bank estimated a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September, widening to 1.4 million in October.
Houthi Attack on Aramco Offices
In a separate incident, Iranian-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi Aramco offices in Riyadh on Sunday. The incident resulted in broken windows but no injuries, adding another layer of complexity to regional stability assessments.
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.
