Dubai – Global liquefied natural gas shipments are poised to record the largest annual decline in history, triggered by the fallout of the Iran war, according to a recent report obtained by the Washington-based Energy Information Unit. The Middle East crisis has sent shockwaves through global gas markets, with sharp reductions in LNG cargoes from Qatar and the Emirates exceeding 60 billion cubic meters year-on-year between March and September 2026.
Historic Contraction in Supply
Consequently, the International Energy Agency expects LNG supplies to fall by 3%, equating to 20 billion cubic meters in 2026, marking the biggest annual drop ever recorded. These forecasts assume continued navigation disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz until at least the end of this year. Against falling supplies, global gas demand is expected to shrink by 1.5% during 2026, recording a third annual decline since 2020.
Regional Disparities and Offsets
LNG supplies dropped by 1% (6 billion cubic meters) during the first nine months of 2026, per the IEA. After strong growth of 13% (12 billion cubic meters) in January and February before the Iran war, supplies fell by 5% (18 billion cubic meters) in the following six months due to Strait disruptions. Meanwhile, LNG production outside the Arab Gulf region rose by 14%, equaling 40 billion cubic meters from March to September 2026.
New Projects Compensate for Losses
This increase compensated for two-thirds of the decline caused by reduced shipments from Qatar and the Emirates. Growth came from new projects in the United States, Canada, and Africa, alongside larger volumes from traditional producers in Africa, Asia, and Russia. US and Canadian shipments rose 16% and 180% respectively in Q3 2026, while Russian and Nigerian exports increased by 21% and 38%.
Long-Term Infrastructure Damage
The IEA estimates cumulative LNG supply losses of nearly 150 billion cubic meters between 2026 and 2030 due to infrastructure damage in the Middle East, notably Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex. This equals 15% of new supplies scheduled globally. Four major North American LNG projects made final investment decisions since March 2026, adding 38 billion cubic meters in the first ten months, with North America accounting for 85% of these volumes despite anticipated tighter markets.
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.
