Dubai – Business News Report|| Global crude oil prices declined by approximately 1 percent during Thursday trading sessions on November 5, 2026. This drop marks the fourth consecutive day of losses, driven by growing optimism that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may be de-escalating. Investors are closely monitoring the political landscape in Washington, where recent electoral outcomes could significantly influence future foreign policy decisions.
Political Shifts Influence Market Sentiment
The recent downturn in oil prices coincides with expectations that losses suffered by the Republican Party in the US Congressional elections might reduce the risk of further military escalation between the United States and Israel against Iran. Sources indicate that President Donald Trump, now facing a more constrained Congress, has increased incentives to pursue diplomatic agreements rather than military action.
Trading Data and Price Movements
By 06:05 GMT, standard Brent crude futures for January 2027 delivery fell 0.45 percent to $94.19 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude for December 2026 delivery dropped 0.98 percent to $87.26 per barrel. These figures reflect data tracked by specialized energy platforms based in Washington.
Supply Surplus and Strategic Reserves
Both benchmark crudes saw significant declines in the previous session, settling at their lowest levels since late August. Analysts note that the resumption of Gulf supply flows has pushed the global market into a surplus. JPMorgan estimates this surplus widened to 1.4 million barrels per day in October, approaching last year’s average of 1.3 million barrels per day.
Geopolitical Risk Assessments
Eurasia Group revised its probability assessments, lowering the chance of renewed US strikes on Iran from 65 percent to 60 percent. However, they also reduced the likelihood of a diplomatic deal from 20 percent to 10 percent due to Iranian demands. Conversely, the probability of continued confrontation rose to 30 percent.
Inventory Levels and Future Outlook
Commercial oil inventories in major consuming nations are nearing their lowest levels in fifteen years. The US Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude stocks of 0.9 million barrels for the week ending October 30. Despite current drops, analysts warn that any new escalation could push Brent prices sharply higher, potentially reaching between $110 and $125 per barrel.
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.
