{"id":95998,"date":"2018-10-23T22:00:48","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T22:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/what-derivative-market-hints-for-future-rates\/"},"modified":"2018-10-23T22:00:48","modified_gmt":"2018-10-23T22:00:48","slug":"what-derivative-market-hints-for-future-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/what-derivative-market-hints-for-future-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"What derivative market hints for future rates?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>MUMBAI: Rest of the world may be on a tightening <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/monetary-policy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">monetary policy<\/a> bias, but not the <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/Reserve-Bank-of-India\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Reserve Bank of India<\/a>, if one goes by what bond traders are indicating.  <\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/Overnight-Indexed-Swaps\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Overnight Indexed Swaps<\/a> (OIS) with one-year maturity, where a trader exchanges fixed rate payment for floating rates, has come off 40 basis points to 7.15% in the past few days signalling an RBI pause for the rest of the year and the first quarter of next. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cAfter the MPC&#039;s surprise decision to leave rates unchanged in the October meeting, the market has toned down rate hike expectations,\u201d said Ananth Narayan, associate professor (finance) at <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/SP-Jain-Institute-of-Management-and-Research\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">SP Jain Institute of Management and Research<\/a>. \u201cContinued soft food inflation and CPI prints, alongside lower crude oil prices have also helped in this adjustment down in swap prices.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of India surprised the market by not raising the policy earlier this month belying majority market expectations. Before the <a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/topic\/RBI-policy\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">RBI policy<\/a>, the OIS metric factored in two consecutive rate increases of 50 basis points. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cSoftening of one-year OIS curve as opposed to CP curve is a sign of easing pressure on non-credit premium components,\u201d said Soumyajit Niyogi, Associate Director, India Ratings and Research. \u201cThe sharp drop is mostly due to RBI&#039;s signalling effect \u2013 first ensured liquidity management through one month OMO calendar, secondly alleviating fear of using policy rate as a tool against weak currency and subsequently giving signal of higher tolerance for currency as an adjusting factor.\u201d <\/p>\n<p>The yield on benchmark government bonds has fallen more than 30 basis points over a month amid rising trade volumes. The gauge ended at 7.89 per cent Tuesday, down from September peak of 8.23 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cGiven the worries around corporate and NBFI debt rollovers, the expectations are that RBI will continue to provide money market liquidity through repos, OMOs and regulatory forbearance,\u201d said Narayan. <\/p>\n<p>The central bank declared it would buy Rs 36,000 crore in aggregate in October. The Reserve Bank of India has kept the market well-oiled with July-October bond purchases at Rs 76,000 crore in total.  <\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/markets\/stocks\/news\/what-derivative-market-hints-for-future-rates\/articleshow\/66337922.cms\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[contf]<br \/>\n[contfnew]<br \/>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/img.etimg.com\/photo\/60278104.cms\"\/><\/p>\n<h5><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">ET Markets<\/a><\/h5>\n<p>[contfnewc]<br \/>\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MUMBAI: Rest of the world may be on a tightening monetary po..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95999,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What derivative market hints for future rates? 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