{"id":92679,"date":"2018-10-03T07:46:02","date_gmt":"2018-10-03T07:46:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/crude-oil-shock-has-started-roiling-emerging-markets\/"},"modified":"2018-10-03T07:46:02","modified_gmt":"2018-10-03T07:46:02","slug":"crude-oil-shock-has-started-roiling-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/crude-oil-shock-has-started-roiling-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude oil shock has started roiling emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

With Brent crude<\/a> surging north of $85 a barrel and some analysts warning that $100 is just around the corner, its comforting to remember that were still a long way from 2008, when oil hit an alltime record of $147.50. <\/p>\n

Comforting, but wrong. For much of the worlds population, were already at or near the worst levels endured during the 2008 price spike. <\/p>\n

While dollar Brent still looks relatively subdued compared to its frenzy a decade ago, its a different story when priced in emerging-market currencies. In Brazilian reais, oil blasted through its 2008 record back in March and is now nearly 50% more costly. In Mexican pesos, Brent overtook that years levels back in May; and within the past month Polish and South African prices have also moved above their decade-ago peaks. India<\/a> and Indonesia arent far behind. <\/p>\n

With emerging-market currencies falling against the greenback, the rising dollar price of crude is compounded for consumers in less wealthy countries. This dynamic helps explain why Brazil went through a crippling truck-drivers strike in May. It also sheds light on the recent political rise of far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro, who could be within sight of presidency in elections that begin Sunday after backing the protests. <\/p>\n

In Mexico, it contributed to the political rebirth of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who won the July 1 presidential election on the back of a promise to hold fuel prices in real terms for three years by building more refineries and increasing subsidies. The same electoral wave could threaten India, too. <\/p>\n

Thanks to price deregulation and an array of additional taxes imposed on retail fuels during the oil-price slump since 2014, the cost of filling up in Indias cities is at record levels. The country has some of the least affordable transport fuel in the world, with a gallon of gasoline costing more than three-quarters of the average daily income and almost as much as it would set you back in Tokyo. <\/p>\n

Some countries have mechanisms in place to soften this blow. The worlds governments handed out $105 billion of oil subsidies in 2016, according to the International Energy Agency \u2013 a figure thats likely to have risen substantially since then, given how cheap crude was two years ago. These measures tend to mollify consumers, but the costs dont go away. <\/p>\n

In Venezuela<\/a>, gasoline still costs just 1 cent a litre, but the extreme disparity with neighbouring countries fuels an epidemic of smuggling and organised crime along its borders. <\/p>\n

A more widespread issue is the damage those subsidies do to government budgets, especially as they ratchet higher when the currency falls, forming a vicious circle. <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

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ET Markets<\/a><\/h5>\n

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