{"id":69511,"date":"2018-03-23T10:10:30","date_gmt":"2018-03-23T10:10:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/new-brexit-battle-over-no-deal\/"},"modified":"2018-03-23T10:10:30","modified_gmt":"2018-03-23T10:10:30","slug":"new-brexit-battle-over-no-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/new-brexit-battle-over-no-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"New Brexit battle over no deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

LONDON \u2014 To prepare for no deal, or not to prepare for no deal \u2014 that is the next Brexit battle in Westminster.<\/p>\n

After securing agreement with the European Commission Monday for a transition period as the U.K. leaves the EU, senior government officials say Brexiteer Cabinet ministers are now braced for a concerted push from colleagues who favor a \u201csoft\u201d exit for the U.K. government to abandon preparations for a scenario in which Britain crashes out of the bloc.<\/p>\n

The preparations are crucial, say Brexiteers, because the U.K. needs to be able to continue demonstrating to Brussels that it is serious about walking away from the Brexit talks in order to secure a good deal.<\/p>\n

For their colleagues who want to stay closer to the EU after Brexit, however, it makes no sense to prepare for a worst-case scenario that looks unlikely, especially now the EU27 has agreed to a transition period.<\/p>\n

\n

Brexiteers are concerned that any move to put no-deal preparations on the backburner would undermine Britain\u2019s negotiating position, handing further leverage to Brussels.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201cThe next fight is over no deal,\u201d said one senior U.K. official close to leading Brexiteer Cabinet ministers. \u201cThere\u2019s going to be a big push now we\u2019ve got the transition to stop preparing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the backbench Conservative MP and leader of the Euroskeptic European Research Group caucus in parliament, said it would be \u201cfolly\u201d to stop no-deal preparations. \u201cIf we were ready [to walk away with no deal] the EU would not be, as it has made no plans to cut spending in the beneficiary states or raise revenue from the other net contributors. That would leave us in a very strong negotiating position,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Contingency plans<\/h3>\n

With a little over a year to go before Britain\u2019s departure from the EU, the U.K. government machine is still formally preparing for all eventualities, from a March 2019 cliff-edge if negotiations fail to produce any agreement at all, to a smooth transition toward a \u201cdeep and special partnership\u201d between the two sides after Brexit.<\/p>\n

The lack of clarity means the U.K. government has to pass at least nine separate pieces of Brexit legislation covering everything from immigration to fishing over the next 12 months, just in case a deal cannot be struck on the terms of Britain\u2019s divorce.<\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s agreement<\/a> between the U.K. and the European Commission on the terms of a 21-month transition period, however, is a major step on the road to a final deal. At a press conference, U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis hailed negotiators\u2019 success in \u201clocking down entire chapters\u201d of the final Withdrawal Agreement.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis | Jack Taylor\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

If it is ratified by EU leaders when they meet in Brussels at the end of the week, the transition pushes back the point at which Britain exits the EU single market and customs union to December 31, 2020 \u2014 but only if a final withdrawal agreement is eventually struck. Throughout the negotiations, both sides have stuck to the mantra that \u201cnothing is agreed until everything is agreed,\u201d leaving everything, in legal terms, up in the air until the last moment.<\/p>\n

Brexiteers are concerned that any move to put no-deal preparations on the backburner would undermine Britain\u2019s negotiating position, handing further leverage to Brussels.<\/p>\n

However, those inside government who fiercely oppose the prospect of a no-deal departure believe the transition deal all but eliminates any serious prospect of Britain crashing out of the EU in March 2019 \u2014 and the government should start to act as such.<\/p>\n

One leading pro-European Conservative MP, who did not want to be named, said Brexiteers were \u201ctrying to prepare the ground for a walk-away from the negotiations and they are finding the prime minister and No. 10 don\u2019t want to countenance that. She partly called them out on this in her Mansion House speech and really needs to do it again at some point.\u201d<\/p>\n

Leading figures in business and industry view the transition deal secured this week as a signal to pause plans for a no-deal Brexit in March 2019 \u2014 even though it could still fall through. Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Confederation of British Industry, said the agreement on transition would give employers \u201cconfidence to put their contingency planning on hold.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cWe will make sure that we are not spending money on outcomes that have been effectively ruled out at any stage\u201d \u2014 Philip Hammond, chancellor of the exchequer<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

James Hookham, deputy chief executive of the Freight Transport Association, said he expects the government to row back some of its own contingency planning for no deal in March 2019.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the business agenda taking over from the political one,\u201d he said. \u201cThere will be a momentum that says: \u2018We are going to put all of our very scarce money, effort and time into planning for 2020\/21,\u2019 and 2019 drops away by default.\u201d<\/p>\n

Voices of Remain<\/h3>\n

Chancellor Philip Hammond, who has been a leading advocate of a \u201csoft\u201d Brexit in Cabinet, raised eyebrows when he told MPs on the House of Commons European scrutiny committee earlier this month the government would be able to \u201cstand down planning for a no-deal exit in 2019\u201d when it secures transition.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will make sure that we are not spending money on outcomes that have been effectively ruled out at any stage,\u201d he told MPs.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond | Andy Rain\/EPA<\/p>\n

In his spring budget statement earlier this month, however, Hammond said the government was still preparing \u201cfor all eventualities.\u201d In a written ministerial statement, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss outlined which departments would be receiving the biggest slices of a \u00a31.5 billion Brexit preparation funding package for 2018\/19.<\/p>\n

The Home Office received the most, \u00a3395 million, followed by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, at \u00a3310 million, Her Majesty\u2019s Revenue and Customs, \u00a3260 million, and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, \u00a3185 million, with other departments receiving smaller amounts.<\/p>\n

However, it is unclear whether these sums are for no-deal preparations. All of the departments receiving large amounts are ones that would have to enact major projects for any Brexit scenario.<\/p>\n

The Home Office too \u2014 led by Amber Rudd who supported Remain in the referendum \u2014 has delayed the introduction of its immigration bill<\/a> until the end of the year. The department said it was \u201cconfident\u201d the new immigration system would be ready in time, but the delay has sparked concern among Brexiteers that the new system will not be in place in time for Britain\u2019s departure should a withdrawal deal hit the rocks.<\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

[contf] [contfnew] <\/p>\n

<\/a><\/h5>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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