{"id":67086,"date":"2018-03-05T16:10:42","date_gmt":"2018-03-05T16:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/these-are-the-stocks-to-long-and-short-following-italys-election\/"},"modified":"2018-03-05T16:10:42","modified_gmt":"2018-03-05T16:10:42","slug":"these-are-the-stocks-to-long-and-short-following-italys-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/these-are-the-stocks-to-long-and-short-following-italys-election\/","title":{"rendered":"These are the stocks to long and short following Italy&#8217;s election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Italy&#039;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/topic\/general-election-2017\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">general election<\/a> today could have profound consequences on European markets, and certain stocks will be winners or losers.<\/p>\n<p>Analytics firm Quant Insight, which counts a number of global asset managers and hedge funds on its books, uses powerful algorithms to track which stock could benefit from specified outcomes.<\/p>\n<p>Ladbrokes Coral, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/company\/capita\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Capita<\/a>, Royal Dutch Shell and Direct Line will be among the companies which do well if the election result is predictable and causes few ripples, according to Quant.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, Alton Towers owner Merlin, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/company\/g4s\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">G4S<\/a>, and Zara parent Inditex could do well in the event of a &quot;risk-off&quot; event which makes investors more risk-averse. This could include an unexpected result or no clear majority, or an &quot;anti-EU&quot; victory.<\/p>\n<h2>The 20 stocks which could benefit each way<\/h2>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Stocks to benefit from a calm result<\/td>\n<td>Stocks to benefit from a &quot;risk-off&quot; result<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Capita<\/td>\n<td>Altice<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>EDF<\/td>\n<td>Orion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Wacker Chemie<\/td>\n<td>Inmarsat<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Bpost<\/td>\n<td>SES<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>IG Group<\/td>\n<td>Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>E.On<\/td>\n<td>Merlin<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Novo Nordisk<\/td>\n<td>Eutelsat Communications<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Neste Oyj<\/td>\n<td>Vestas Wind Systems<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Amer Sports<\/td>\n<td>Inditex<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>RPC Group<\/td>\n<td>Elior Group<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Associated British Foods<\/td>\n<td>Endesa<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Swisscom<\/td>\n<td>Sanofi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Givaudan<\/td>\n<td>Prosiebensat.1 Media<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Direct Line Insurance<\/td>\n<td>Merck<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Novozymes-B<\/td>\n<td>United Utilities<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Umicore<\/td>\n<td>Intrum Justitia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ladbrokes Coral<\/td>\n<td>G4S<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Veolia Environnement<\/td>\n<td>Elekta-B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Royal Dutch Shell<\/td>\n<td>Skanska-B<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Hargreaves Lansdown<\/td>\n<td>Suez<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>If investors are banking on the Italian election producing an expected result, they may take long positions in the first column while shorting the second. If they believe a shock outcome is more likely however, the positions would swap around.<\/p>\n<p>&quot;It\u2019s interesting that these are pan-European names rather than Italian names,&quot; said Quant Insight&#039;s Mahmood Noorani.<\/p>\n<p>&quot;Clearly these companies are sensitive to increased European risk, of which Italy is a part. Investors view them as exposed, positively or negatively, to European\/Italian risk.<\/p>\n<p>&quot;There is also probably something deeper going. For example, a crisis in Italy probably means a weaker euro, which for a large Italian exporter might actually be good news overall. It might also be good for a utility (defensive) stock as another example. It might be really bad for a company more exposed to domestic demand (e.g. consumer discretionary).&quot;<\/p>\n<h2>What are the algorithms picking up on?<\/h2>\n<p>The yields of Italy&#039;s five-year BTP treasury bonds have dropped recently relative to their German Bund peers, meaning the spread has narrowed.<\/p>\n<p>This comes as Quant&#039;s research has shown wider credit spreads have been pushing European stocks lower.<\/p>\n<p>A risk-off event in the election would likely widen BTP-Bund and European credit spreads, pushing European stocks lower on the current pattern of association.<\/p>\n<p>The 40 stocks which Quant Insight has chosen are those which have proved to be particularly susceptible to these fluctuations.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/281644\/these-stocks-long-and-short-aftermath-italys-general\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Italy&#039;s general election today could have profound cons..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-67086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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