{"id":43506,"date":"2017-12-22T08:54:50","date_gmt":"2017-12-22T08:54:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/this-game-of-thrones-climate-model-is-whats-been-missing-from-your-life\/"},"modified":"2017-12-22T08:54:50","modified_gmt":"2017-12-22T08:54:50","slug":"this-game-of-thrones-climate-model-is-whats-been-missing-from-your-life","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/this-game-of-thrones-climate-model-is-whats-been-missing-from-your-life\/","title":{"rendered":"This Game of Thrones climate model is what\u2019s been missing from your life"},"content":{"rendered":"
Enlarge<\/a>Dan Lunt, University of Bristol<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A central conceit of George R.R. Martin\u2019s A Song of Ice and Fire books (and the popular HBO series Game of Thrones<\/em> based on them) is that the seasons of the planet where they take place are not as predictable as the Earth\u2019s annual cycle. Somehow the phrase \u201cwinter is coming\u201d wouldn\u2019t seem as foreboding if you could reply, \u201cYes, that usually happens in December through February.\u201d<\/p>\n

But how could a planet have unruly seasons? Earth\u2019s seasons are due to the tilt of its axis. During one part of Earth\u2019s orbit, the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the Sun, with the resulting indirect sunlight spread thin over the surface of the hemisphere, causing winter. On the opposite side of its orbit, summer comes as this hemisphere is tilted toward direct sunlight. There isn\u2019t much room in such clockwork for randomness.<\/p>\n

Well, if you\u2019ve ever wanted to debate fan theories, here\u2019s an excellent new resource for you to draw from: a real climate model simulation of Westeros and Essos.<\/p>\n

The study<\/a> appears to have been published by one Samwell Tarly<\/a>, who notes an affiliation to The Citadel in Oldtown\u2014and also The University of Bristol in the UK. (The effort bears a frankly suspicious resemblance to a climate model<\/a> of Middle Earth created by a Radagast the Brown.) The new paper comprises what is apparently the very first issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of King\u2019s Landing<\/em>, a new journal that should not be confused with the long-lived (and nearly identically named) publication of the UK Royal Society. And yes, it is available in the languages of Dothraki and High Valyrian.<\/p>\n

The goal of this bit of fun was to see if there was a way to simulate Martin\u2019s world by tweaking a climate model of the Earth. The author took some liberties to fill in the partial map of the \u201cknown world\u201d in Martin\u2019s books. And while fan explanations for Martin\u2019s strange and long-lasting seasons have included wild variations of greenhouse gases to volcanic activity to ocean circulation patterns, the author finds these lacking, as there is at least one mention of shortened days during the long winter.<\/p>\n

That points to an orbital mechanism. The author\u2019s idea is this: if the planet\u2019s axis wobbled in a circle once per orbit, the summer hemisphere could stay pointed at its equivalent of the Sun the entire time. The first attempt to simulate this configuration crashed the model as intense winds developed between the hemispheres, which reached radically different temperatures. But reducing the planet\u2019s tilt from 23.5 degrees to 10 degrees smoothed out the extremes.<\/p>\n

\"Model<\/a>
Enlarge<\/a>\/ Model results for winter (top row) and summer (bottom row) showing temperature on the left and precipitation on the right.Dan Lunt, University of Bristol<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In a winter configuration, most of The North freezes, while much of the rest of Westeros actually stays pretty warm. And that\u2019s especially true on the western side of the continent, which is warmed by ocean currents. During summer, on the other hand, only a small refuge north of The Wall stays frozen (a likely hibernation spot for White Walkers, the author notes. Warm, southern Westeros is bathed in tropical rain.<\/p>\n

Referencing some weather data for the \u201creal\u201d Earth\u2014apparently discovered on some dusty shelf of The Citadel Library\u2014the author also finds some close comparisons. The winter climate at The Wall, for example, is similar to northern Sweden and Norway. At Casterly Rock\u2014home to the Lannister family\u2014summer conditions are equivalent to parts of eastern China or Houston, Texas.<\/p>\n

There is, however, a major problem with this proposed explanation for long, unpredictable seasons. It seems to work pretty well for describing any single season, but needs a little deus ex machina<\/em> to actually change from one season to another. There\u2019s no good way to flip the odd orbital behavior that keeps one season locked in, leaving the young Tarly to posit \u201ca passing comet or just the magic of the Seven.\u201d How a suggestion like that slipped through peer review is unclear.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s more, the paper notes instances of characters in Martin\u2019s books of navigating by the stars\u2014which would be difficult if the constellations in the sky were rotating in an annual circuit.<\/p>\n

At any rate, the paper also includes a measure of the GoT<\/em> world\u2019s sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. This is in response to reports of measured increases \u201clikely due to the recent increase in dragon population in Essos, the deforestation of many regions associated with the increase in shipbuilding throughout Westeros and Essos, and the excessive use of wildfire.\u201d<\/p>\n

The simulations show about 2.1 degrees Celsius of warming for a doubling of the greenhouse gas concentration. That\u2019s slightly less than the roughly 3-degrees best estimate for Earth, but this simulation could only run for 100 years, whereas simulations of Earth typically require several centuries to reach equilibrium.<\/p>\n

Noting the potential impact of sea-level rise on King\u2019s Landing, the author writes, \u201c[A]s a climate scientist, I strongly encourage all the Kingdoms of our planet to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide and seek alternative \u2018renewable\u2019 energy (such as windmills).\u201d<\/p>\n

On a slightly more serious note, Tarly\u2019s light-hearted experiment is meant to help illustrate the value of climate models. They allow us to investigate our current world, or Earth\u2019s past or future, or even another planet entirely\u2014fictional or not. And as for the physically unavoidable consequences of an increased concentration of greenhouse gases on this planet or any other, a Dothraki saying comes to mind: \u201cIt is known.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

[contf] [contfnew] <\/p>\n

Ars Technica<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc] [contfnewc] <\/p>\n

The post This Game of Thrones climate model is what\u2019s been missing from your life<\/a> appeared first on News Wire Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EnlargeDan Lunt, University of Bristol
\nA central conceit of ..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-43506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tech"],"yoast_head":"\nThis Game of Thrones climate model is what\u2019s been missing from your life - Business News Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"EnlargeDan Lunt, University of Bristol A central conceit of ..\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/this-game-of-thrones-climate-model-is-whats-been-missing-from-your-life\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"This Game of Thrones climate model is what\u2019s been missing from your life - 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