{"id":42860,"date":"2017-12-21T11:52:57","date_gmt":"2017-12-21T11:52:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/are-uk-markets-overstretched\/"},"modified":"2017-12-21T11:52:58","modified_gmt":"2017-12-21T11:52:58","slug":"are-uk-markets-overstretched","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/are-uk-markets-overstretched\/","title":{"rendered":"Are UK markets overstretched?"},"content":{"rendered":"

With the FTSE 100<\/a> and All-Share a wee bit below their all-time highs and valuations above average, many fear equities are too high and will soon fall. However, in our view, such worries are misplaced. Valuations aren\u2019t predictive, and markets routinely set all-time highs during bull markets. We expect UK markets to keep making chart-topping records for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

New highs are normal in a bull market. 6 November\u2019s record high was the 32nd since the FTSE 100\u2019s 2009 bottom. We could easily see many more before bull\u2019s end. In the 11\/10\/1990 through 18\/9\/2000 global bull market, there were 189, but between then and now there was a 15-year stretch without record highs[i]<\/a> (Exhibit 1). Perhaps that\u2019s why they seem novel now! The FTSE 100 Price Index peaked before world markets, on 30\/12\/1999, and never regained that high during the 2003 \u2013 2007 bull, which we believe ended prematurely tied to US financial accounting rule shifts and the government\u2019s inconsistent crisis response. Investors didn\u2019t see new record highs until 2015, but only nine occurred that year before a global correction struck midyear. The rally resumed the following February, and by autumn, the FTSE was regularly notching new highs. Still, the coincidence of a correction beginning soon after the FTSE regained record heights may reinforce investors\u2019 acrophobia.<\/p>\n

Exhibit 1: After a 15-Year Stretch, New Highs Resume<\/h2>\n

Source: FactSet, as of 5\/12\/2017. FTSE 100 price index, 2\/1\/1986 \u2013 4\/12\/2017<\/p>\n

But it is mere coincidence\u2014equities often set dozens of new highs during a bull market\u2014sometimes hundreds. Take the US\u2019s S&P 500 for example. Across the pond, up until 4 December, the S&P 500 Total Return Index has set 247 all-time highs during this bull market.[ii]<\/a> In the 1990s, history\u2019s longest-running bull, it notched 345.[iii]<\/a> Nothing about the UK\u2019s underlying business dynamism or market fundamentals suggests the FTSE is incapable of matching\u2014or surpassing\u2014these feats.<\/p>\n

Old age and record highs don\u2019t kill bull markets. Yes, one record high will eventually be this bull\u2019s peak, but it is impossible to identify in real time. As bear markets roll over slowly, peaks usually aren\u2019t apparent until a few months after the fact. We believe investors who avoid shares because of record highs alone risk missing out on considerable future gains.<\/p>\n

The same goes for those who shun equities due to above-average price-to-earnings ratios<\/a>, in our view. Valuations aren\u2019t predictive. Cheap shares can get cheaper and expensive shares more expensive. P\/Es are often sky-high very early in bull markets, as share prices recover before earnings do. Sentiment also influences P\/E ratios during a bull. Valuations are usually lower, during younger bulls, when investors have less optimism about future earnings. As bulls mature and investors gain confidence, becoming willing to pay up for earnings P\/Es usually rise, but in the UK, we\u2019ve seen markets rising lately against a backdrop of falling <\/em>P\/Es. Although the FTSE 100\u2019s P\/E of 21.5 exceeds the historical average of about 15<\/a>, much of this is tied to matters that are largely behind us.<\/p>\n

Falling oil and commodity prices weighed on UK Materials and Energy firms\u2019 earnings for much of the last few years. These sectors represent 24 per cent of the index by market cap. That drove the FTSE 100\u2019s P\/E to just over 40 in August 2016. Since then, as earnings in those sectors have begun recovering (and UK banks have largely moved past some large ad hoc regulatory charges that depressed earnings in recent years), P\/Es are down by nearly half. Over the same span, UK markets are up 6.5 per cent, notching 23 all-time highs.[iv]<\/a> Consider this back story, and valuations aren\u2019t as extreme as they\u2019re sometimes made out to be. Either way, even higher valuations didn\u2019t foretell trouble in the last year\u2014highlighting the fact they just don\u2019t predict equities\u2019 direction.<\/p>\n

Bulls end by fundamentals deteriorating relative to expectations. This generally comes in one of two varieties\u2014the \u201cwall\u201d or the \u201cwallop.\u201d Equities stop climbing the \u201cwall of worry\u201d when sentiment becomes so euphoric reality can\u2019t possibly meet expectations. The late-1990\u2019s US dot-com bubble was the last prominent example in equity markets. At the top, \u201cnew-economy\u201d thinking dominates. During the frenzy, low-quality IPOs\u2014firms without any rational business model and earnings potential\u2014launch to great fanfare. Folks expect them to usher in a paradigm-shifting era of continuous growth, abolishing the business cycle. When the new era fails to materialise, demand for shares dries up, leaving a supply glut, and prices crash. Today, rather than celebrate record highs, financial media use the occasion to warn<\/a> about downside risks. This is a sign equities still have more \u201cwall of worry\u201d to climb.<\/p>\n

Bears can also begin when a huge, unseen negative truncates an expansion before it runs its natural course. To move the needle, it likely must be large enough to render recession globally\u2014a couple of trillion pounds or so. Owing to the UK\u2019s strong global economic and capital markets links, it generally doesn\u2019t diverge from the world much. For the UK to get a bear whilst the world is in a bull would be unusual. 2008\u2019s global financial crisis was a wallop. So was Hitler\u2019s invasion of Czechoslovakia, which forced markets to price in the onset of World War II in 1938, cutting short what we believe was a nascent bull market. We don\u2019t see anything of that magnitude today. Today\u2019s fears are either too small, too widely known or false.<\/p>\n

If a wall or wallop were to occur, we would only know it after the fact. Until then, however, trying to call a top and preemptively avoid it carries greater risk for investors. If wrong, you\u2019ll be missing out on upside that can potentially be more damaging to your portfolio\u2019s long-term returns than any prospective bear.<\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> On a price-level basis. The total-return index, including reinvested dividends, registered a handful of new highs in 2007. But few in media discuss that measure, even though it is a more accurate measure of investors\u2019 experience.<\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> Source: FactSet, as of 5\/12\/2017. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 9\/10\/2007 \u2013 5\/12\/2017.<\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a> Source: FactSet, as of 22\/7\/2014. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 16\/7\/1990 \u2013 24\/3\/2000.<\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> Source: FactSet, as of 05\/12\/2017. FTSE 100 price return, 16\/8\/2016 \u2013 4\/12\/2017.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

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CityAM<\/a><\/h5>\n

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The post Are UK markets overstretched?<\/a> appeared first on News Wire Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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