{"id":40969,"date":"2017-12-19T02:42:33","date_gmt":"2017-12-19T02:42:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/the-year-in-sterling-election-shock-rate-rises-and-brexit-brexit-brexit\/"},"modified":"2017-12-19T02:42:38","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T02:42:38","slug":"the-year-in-sterling-election-shock-rate-rises-and-brexit-brexit-brexit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/the-year-in-sterling-election-shock-rate-rises-and-brexit-brexit-brexit\/","title":{"rendered":"The year in sterling: Election shock, rate rises and Brexit, Brexit, Brexit"},"content":{"rendered":"

It was a brave trader betting on sterling at the start of the year. Economists were fearful for the British economy as 2016\u2019s dramatic fall in the pound fed through to surging inflation; Theresa May<\/a> was still a novice as Prime Minister; and the Brexit process had not yet truly begun.<\/p>\n

Brexit has \u2013 as might have been predicted \u2013 been the story of the year. \u201cEvery Brexit headline has had the potential to move the pound,\u201d says Lee Hardman, currency analyst at Japanese bank MUFG.<\/p>\n

However, those expecting a major blow-up will have been relieved to find that sterling approaches the end of the year on the verge of a relatively impressive performance: up by almost nine per cent against the US dollar, and flat on a trade-weighted basis even as the euro has surged.<\/p>\n

1: January drama<\/h2>\n

At the start of the year the year sterling was in the doldrums, having barely recovered from a record low in October 2016, according to the sterling exchange rate index compiled by the Bank of England<\/a>. Expectations of spending from US President Donald Trump<\/a> had buoyed the dollar, while investors balked at the lack of clarity from the government on Brexit.<\/p>\n

Much needed clarity was delivered by Theresa May in mid-January, amid big swings in volatility. At a speech at London\u2019s Lancaster House, May confirmed the UK will aim to leave the Single Market. Markets breathed a sigh of relief, sending the pound to its biggest one-day rise of the year on 17 January \u2013 even if a so-called soft Brexit was seemingly ruled out.<\/p>\n

2: Article 50 trigger warning<\/h2>\n

In March the Prime Minister threw more red meat to pro-Brexit backbenchers \u2013 fearful the UK might retreat from the lines drawn at Lancaster House \u2013 with the announcement she would trigger Article 50 on 29 March.<\/p>\n

Yet while the political process of Brexit dominated the foreground, the big economic change wrought by the vote\u2019s sterling fallout had already started to be felt early in the year. Inflation rose above the Bank of England\u2019s two per cent target for the first time since 2013 in March, adding to sterling strength as the dollar weakened.<\/p>\n

3: Snap election shock<\/h2>\n

In a year of high drama there was little to match the morning of 18 April: a mysterious lectern outside 10 Downing Street, a frenzy of speculation around a statement, and then a snap election announcement.<\/p>\n

Opinion polls uniformly predicted a strong majority for Theresa May\u2019s Conservatives. Some people thought it would strengthen the hand of Brexit supporters, while others reduced their risk of a harder Brexit deal. However, in the interpretative free-for-all almost all traders were agreed: the snap election decision meant sterling was worth a lot more.<\/p>\n

\"Theresa
Theresa May announced the snap election outside 10 Downing Street (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n

4: Election Mayday<\/h2>\n

Everyone was wrong: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn<\/a>, whose campaign was inspired where May\u2019s was insipid, caused a sensational shock even by the standards of the last two years, depriving the Prime Minister of her majority, and with it her authority.<\/p>\n

Sterling suffered its worst one-day fall of the year on 9 June as investors waited for the imminent collapse of the Tory government.<\/p>\n

5: Enter Carney and the hawks<\/h2>\n

During a sleepy summer in which the Brexit process stalled doves on the Bank of England\u2019s rate-setting monetary policy committee. That \u201ccaused a lot of people to reappraise where the BoE were seeing inflation,\u201d says Jeremy Cook, chief economist at World First, the payments firm.<\/p>\n

In September governor Mark Carney<\/a> added his rhetorical weight, preparing markets for a reversal of the post-Brexit-vote interest rate cut. The comments sent the pound soaring, as the Bank moved to battle what it saw as inflationary pressure, even as its growth outlook remained weak.<\/p>\n

Yet when the rate rise finally came, on the 2 November 2017, investors were less impressed, selling the pound as they scaled back their bets on the future path of interest rate rises as Carney and co. failed to send a hawkish signal.<\/p>\n

\"New
Mark Carney and his Bank of England colleagues shocked markets at the end of summer (Source: Getty)<\/p>\n

6: Towards sufficient progress<\/h2>\n

Once the Bank of England had finally fired the starting gun on what it sees as a hiking cycle, the focus in the last two months came back onto Brexit, with the calls for the UK and EU to achieve \u201csufficient progress\u201d and agree a transition deal by the end of the year.<\/p>\n

The first part was achieved \u2013 in spite of almost falling through over a dispute about the Irish border. Yet businesses, investors and citizens still await news of a transition period, details of which could prove to be the next big political event for sterling traders.<\/p>\n

Some 18 months after the EU referendum the negotiations still dominate, with little sign of investors\u2019 fixation on Brexit waning.<\/p>\n

Read more<\/strong>: Pound tumbles on Brexit doubts but FTSE 100 edges higher<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

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CityAM<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc]
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The post The year in sterling: Election shock, rate rises and Brexit, Brexit, Brexit<\/a> appeared first on News Wire Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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