{"id":40162,"date":"2017-12-17T23:32:43","date_gmt":"2017-12-17T23:32:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/hurricane-harvey-studies-yesterdays-100-year-storm-is-todays-30-year-storm\/"},"modified":"2017-12-17T23:32:43","modified_gmt":"2017-12-17T23:32:43","slug":"hurricane-harvey-studies-yesterdays-100-year-storm-is-todays-30-year-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/hurricane-harvey-studies-yesterdays-100-year-storm-is-todays-30-year-storm\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Harvey studies: Yesterday\u2019s 100-year storm is today\u2019s 30-year storm"},"content":{"rendered":"
Enlarge<\/a>Texas Military Department<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The story explaining the incredible flooding in Houston during Hurricane Harvey has many chapters, ranging from meteorology to the history of groundwater use and development zoning. The chapter on climate change has already had a few pages filled in, thanks to a study<\/a> quickly published by MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel<\/a>. This week, two complementary studies flesh the chapter out a little more.<\/p>\n

The first paper comes from a group of scientists who have worked to rapidly analyze a number of extreme weather events over the past few years, including flooding in Europe<\/a> and Louisiana<\/a> last year. The general strategy for this type of undertaking is not entirely dissimilar from tracking the home run hitting of steroid-using baseball players. You can\u2019t really know if an individual home run would have occurred sans<\/em> steroids, but that\u2019s not the point. Instead, you work out whether home runs like the one you just witnessed are generally being juiced.<\/p>\n

In this case, the researchers were able to build on their analysis of the nearby Louisiana deluge from 2016. As in that study, they analyzed the history of rainfall measurements in the region to work out just how unusual the incredible rainfall totals from Harvey were\u2014and whether the chances of an event like that have changed over time.<\/p>\n

Even in today\u2019s climate, Harvey\u2019s rainfall was at least<\/em> a 1,000-year event, meaning there\u2019s just a one-in-a-thousand chance it happens in any given year. But the researchers see evidence that the odds would have been even smaller a century ago. They estimate that there has been a (roughly) 18-percent increase in the intensity of extreme rain events along this stretch of the Gulf Coast since the late 1800s.<\/p>\n

One of the simplest relationships in climate change is how the water-vapor capacity of air increases about 6-8 percent for every degree Celsius of warming. The Houston area has warmed just about 1\u00b0C, so that\u2019s how much you might expect rainfall extremes to change if nothing else was going on. One thing that can amplify that simple relationship, though, is the fact that water vapor added to the atmosphere also<\/em> releases heat when it condenses into droplets. This causes the air to keep rising until even more water is wrung out, which can mean stronger storm events.<\/p>\n

The rainfall records seem to support something like that scenario. Storms around Houston are producing more rain than they used to.<\/p>\n

To test the cause of this change in rainfall intensity, the researchers also simulated the region with several climate models. Model simulations like these would include the occurrence of \u201cblocking high\u201d pressure setups like the one that kept Hurricane Harvey pinned over Houston for so long. That is, after all, one way to get high rainfall totals.<\/p>\n

They threw out one model because it couldn\u2019t do a good-enough job matching past extreme weather patterns in this specific area. Interestingly, the two models that passed that test produced slightly different answers. One model showed a 17-percent increase in extreme rainfall between 1861 and 2017\u2014quite similar to the trend found in the actual rainfall observations. However, the other model simulated a smaller increase of 8 percent, which is close to the unamplified effect of water vapor capacity in warmer air.<\/p>\n

In the end, the researchers go with an average of the different estimates, concluding that our best understanding is that human-caused climate change has made modern storms\u2014including Harvey\u2014dump about 15 percent more rain. Another way to describe that is to say that a storm of Harvey\u2019s magnitude is about three times more likely now than it was in the late 1800s.<\/p>\n

Double check<\/h2>\n

A second study, published by Mark Risser<\/a> and Michael Wehner<\/a> at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, performed a similar analysis of past weather station records. Their methods were a little different: they focused on 7-day rainfall totals rather than 3-day totals, for example, and checked for the influence of El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a conditions. But their results were basically the same.<\/p>\n

They estimate that Harvey\u2019s rainfall was probably almost 19 percent higher due to global warming, which also means the probability of a storm of Harvey's size is now 3.5 times more likely.<\/p>\n

The researchers use the previous record-high 7-day rainfall as an example. In 1950, that would have been about a 200-year storm. But in 2017, it is closer to a 30-year storm.<\/p>\n

Although a 1,000-year storm is bound to happen somewhere<\/em> in the world fairly regularly, it\u2019s still ultimately \u201cbad luck\u201d when it happens to you. A number of chance events had to line up to make Hurricane Harvey as extreme as it was. But on the list of things humans did that made Harvey and its effects worse <\/em>than it otherwise would have been, climate change cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n

Environmental Research Letters<\/em>, 2017. DOI: 10.1088\/1748-9326\/aa9ef2<\/a>
Geophysical Research Letters<\/em>, 2017. DOI: 10.1002\/2017GL075888<\/a> (About DOIs<\/a>).<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

[contf] [contfnew] <\/p>\n

Ars Technica<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc] [contfnewc] <\/p>\n

The post Hurricane Harvey studies: Yesterday\u2019s 100-year storm is today\u2019s 30-year storm<\/a> appeared first on News Wire Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EnlargeTexas Military Department
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