{"id":36326,"date":"2017-12-14T09:12:18","date_gmt":"2017-12-14T09:12:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/whether-it-has-peaked-or-not-were-playing-a-waiting-game-with-inflation\/"},"modified":"2017-12-14T09:12:18","modified_gmt":"2017-12-14T09:12:18","slug":"whether-it-has-peaked-or-not-were-playing-a-waiting-game-with-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/whether-it-has-peaked-or-not-were-playing-a-waiting-game-with-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Whether it has peaked or not, we\u2019re playing a waiting game with inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Tuesday, official data showed Consumer Price Inflation crept up slightly to 3.1% in November. It was enough to oblige the Bank of England<\/a> Governor Mark Carney<\/a> to write a letter to the Chancellor, an event not unlike a naughty schoolboy writing a letter of apology to the headmaster.<\/p>\n

Mr Carney wrote to Philip Hammond<\/a> to explain how he plans to bring inflation back to its 2% target.<\/p>\n

The thing is, he\u2019s already done it. Having hiked interest rates by 25 basis points in November, the Bank of England will be in no hurry to hike them again this month, especially, with just two weeks to go before Christmas and in the midst of already weak retail sales.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Mr Carney has said he expects inflation to peak at 3.1% and he even said when he expected this to happen \u2013 in either October or November. If inflation has peaked, Mr Carney will have been proven correct in his forecast but only time will tell.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Wednesday\u2019s official unemployment figures showed average weekly wages had risen by 2.3% in the three months to October, up slightly from the figure for the three months to September. So, while wages are lagging inflation, it\u2019s not by a huge amount, while unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975.<\/p>\n

Added to that Wednesday\u2019s data provided some evidence of the job market tightening. Finally, some may begin to argue we are beginning to see even some \u2013 fairly faint \u2013 evidence of the Phillips Curve \u2013 that helps to explain relationship between higher wage demand and inflation \u2013 kicking in. But again, only time will tell.<\/p>\n

When considered altogether the chances of a Bank of England rate hike this month are infinitesimally small. In fact, the chances of an interest rate hike before next Autumn seem remote at best.<\/p>\n

There may be those who disagree but unless, or until, inflation grows further or stubbornly refuses to fall, interest rates are unlikely to move. At 3.1% inflation is unwelcome perhaps but not unbearable \u2013 just ask anyone old enough to remember the 1970s and 1980s.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, inflation isn't even as high as it was in 2011 when it peaked at 5.2% and interest rates were not hiked.<\/p>\n

If inflation begins to fall away in 2018 as is still being forecast by the Bank of England, there will be next to no pressure to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n

It is only if the theory that inflation has largely been the result of the weakness of the Pound versus the Dollar and Euro proves to be incorrect that interest rates may rise.<\/p>\n

In any case the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will want to see more data first and may wait until late Spring at the earliest before coming to any conclusions about inflation.<\/p>\n

After last month\u2019s excitement at the first rate rise in a decade it\u2019s very much a case of \u2018as you were\u2019 over at Threadneedle Street. At least for the time being.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n

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CityAM<\/a><\/h5>\n

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The post Whether it has peaked or not, we\u2019re playing a waiting game with inflation<\/a> appeared first on News Wire Now<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Tuesday, official data showed Consumer Price Inflation cr..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":36327,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36326","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"\nWhether it has peaked or not, we\u2019re playing a waiting game with inflation - Business News Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On Tuesday, official data showed Consumer Price Inflation cr..\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/whether-it-has-peaked-or-not-were-playing-a-waiting-game-with-inflation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Whether it has peaked or not, we\u2019re playing a waiting game with inflation - 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