Dubai \u2013 The International Energy Agency forecasts an oil supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the first such projection since the onset of regional hostilities. This shift from previous deficit estimates stems from recovering Gulf exports and deepening global demand contraction. Global supplies surged by 2.3 million barrels daily in October 2026, primarily fueled by increased production and shipments from the Gulf region. Despite ongoing attacks on oil tankers, Gulf exports excluding Oman reached 18.4 million barrels daily in October, representing a 26 percent decline from pre-war levels. Crude-only exports rose to 15 million barrels, equivalent to 82 percent of pre-war volumes.<\/p>\n
For the full year 2026, the agency anticipates a global supply reduction of 4.8 million barrels daily. However, supplies are expected to rise by 6.6 million barrels daily in 2027, reaching an average of 108.1 million barrels daily. This growth is driven by Gulf production recovery and increased supplies from non-Gulf producers. Non-Gulf nations including the United States, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana will add 1.6 million barrels daily in 2026, followed by another 1.1 million barrels in 2027. Gulf states are projected to increase production by 5.3 million barrels daily next year.<\/p>\n
Global oil demand is expected to contract by 2.7 million barrels daily in 2026, falling to 102.3 million barrels daily, slightly worse than previous estimates of a 2.62 million barrel drop. Demand growth is forecast at 2 million barrels daily for 2027. In the fourth quarter of 2026, demand will shrink by 2.7 million barrels annually, slowing from earlier quarterly declines. Growth will resume by March 2027, with petrochemical feedstocks accounting for nearly 80 percent of the increase. Transport fuel gains remain limited due to high prices accelerating electrification.<\/p>\n
Global oil inventories increased by 52 million barrels in October 2026, the first monthly rise since June. Floating storage jumped by 86 million barrels, reaching highest levels since January 2026. Conversely, land-based stocks fell to their lowest since 2016. OECD inventories decreased by 47 million barrels, while cumulative global stocks have dropped by 462 million barrels since the war began. Global refining rates fell by 1.3 million barrels daily in October to 81.3 million, with expectations of a rise to 84.3 million barrels daily in 2027. Diesel shortages remain the primary challenge, though Atlantic refineries are boosting operations to capitalize on high margins.<\/p>\n
This story was produced in the newsroom from the disclosed sources named above.<\/em><\/p>\n