{"id":21815,"date":"2017-11-29T11:24:47","date_gmt":"2017-11-29T11:24:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/a-us-recession-is-imminent-and-germany-may-suffer-the-most\/"},"modified":"2017-11-29T11:24:51","modified_gmt":"2017-11-29T11:24:51","slug":"a-us-recession-is-imminent-and-germany-may-suffer-the-most","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/a-us-recession-is-imminent-and-germany-may-suffer-the-most\/","title":{"rendered":"A US recession is imminent, and Germany may suffer the most"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cWe have to wait for Germany to make its move,\u201d George Friedman declared at the <a href=\"https:\/\/eic.cfainstitute.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Friedman, the founder and chair of Geopolitical Futures, has a <a href=\"https:\/\/eic.cfainstitute.org\/2017\/08\/17\/george-friedman-guides-investors-through-geopolitics\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">history of being right when others are wrong<\/a> and being predictive when others are reactive. He has spent his career navigating the convergence of geography with history, politics, economics, and societal imperatives.<\/p>\n<p>In his presentation to financial professionals in Berlin, he explained that \u201cthere is one last piece\u201d of the global financial crisis that must play out \u201cbefore we can move on.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Friedman challenged the definition of \u201cnormal\u201d for the global financial system. \u201cThe period between 1991 and 2008 was an anomaly,\u201d he said. A growing interdependence among nations, along with an unprecedented degree of connectedness, eroded the safeguards that had protected individual countries from the global crises of the past.<\/p>\n<p>As Friedman sees it, individual nations had built and configured their banking and legal systems for their own interest and benefit \u2014 and for their own protection. That work was abandoned \u201cin an interesting fantasy that nations are not relevant.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt was a belief that the world had changed, that somehow human beings had changed,\u201d he said. But financial cycles of boom and bust kept playing out, culminating in the ruinous consequences of 2008.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s no reason to think that it\u2019s different this time,\u201d Friedman said. \u201cIn fact, it\u2019s never different this time. It\u2019s pretty much the same.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Since the global financial crisis, national politics have re-emerged to protect against the extremes of a financial system that is too interconnected. \u201cNations are essential,\u201d said Friedman. \u201cThe ability to disengage at critical times from the system is what prevents fires from spreading.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A geopolitical perspective views politics and economics as parts of the same system. Friedman provided an example from medicine: \u201cThe doctor may think of your heart and your liver differently,\u201d he said, \u201cbut you have both, and they\u2019d better work.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Politicians must find a balance among the needs of their constituents. In contrast, \u201cthe financial community is moving in one particular direction: optimising aggregate growth,\u201d Friedman said. As a result, financial actors can be blind to the dangerous imbalances, either among or within nations, that politicians cannot afford to ignore.<\/p>\n<p>In this model, the political system manages the failures of the financial system, and \u201cthe most important consequences of financial crises are political,\u201d Friedman said. A worldwide financial crisis triggers massive political shifts that unfold much more slowly than the crisis itself.<\/p>\n<p>Friedman sees this in the way that unrest and realignment have played out across the globe. The changes in China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia over the last 10 years demonstrate how states have addressed their financial problems by adjusting their political systems and reinstating their firewalls.<\/p>\n<p>As nations work through the aftermath of such financial crises, \u201cYou will get Donald Trumps,\u201d Friedman said. \u201cYou will find Le Pens.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That leaves an important question: Which nations are still vulnerable to financial shocks that could trigger major political adjustments?<\/p>\n<p>Friedman expects a recession in the United States. \u201cRight now, we are seeing completely irrational numbers in the stock market,\u201d he said, \u201cwhich is a normal, healthy bubble. We are also seeing a flattening yield curve. We are seeing all the forerunners of a recession.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But the most dramatic political changes triggered by a US recession may play out in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe United States has become a critical export partner of Germany,\u201d Friedman noted. And Germany, currently the fourth largest economy in the world, \u201cis absolutely dependent on its customers\u2019 ability to buy.\u201d In a country where <a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS?locations=DE\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">almost half of the gross domestic product (GDP) comes from exports<\/a>, a 5% decline in exports leads to an almost 2.5% decrease in GDP.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe United States is heading for a period when it\u2019s not going to be able to buy as much,\u201d Friedman said. But the United States has gone through such periods before and isn\u2019t overly dependent on exports to drive its economy. \u201cFor us, a cyclical crisis. For Germany, a secular crisis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In the aftermath of such a crisis, Friedman will be watching the steps Germany takes to address its declining GDP \u2014 and the rising unemployment that accompanies it.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/276417\/us-recession-imminent-and-germany-may-suffer-most\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n<p>[contf]<br \/>\n[contfnew]<br \/>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/latestcb20150503233945-69.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<h5><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">CityAM<\/a><\/h5>\n<p>[contfnewc]<br \/>\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cWe have to wait for Germany to make its move,\u201d George Fried..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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