{"id":151006,"date":"2020-08-21T22:20:29","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T22:20:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/brexit-talks-head-for-october-showdown-again\/"},"modified":"2020-08-21T22:20:29","modified_gmt":"2020-08-21T22:20:29","slug":"brexit-talks-head-for-october-showdown-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/brexit-talks-head-for-october-showdown-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Brexit talks head for October showdown (again)"},"content":{"rendered":"

LONDON \u2014 Its all set up for a last-gasp dash for a deal in October. Either that, or no deal at all.<\/p>\n

The seventh formal round of post-Brexit future relationship talks between the U.K. and the EU wrapped up Friday<\/a> with the familiar stalemate and mutual blame. So familiar in fact, it was almost a greatest hits album, with EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier dusting off his favorite line about the ticking clock, and even covering the Theresa May classic: \u201cBrexit means Brexit.\u201d<\/p>\n

The British side agrees that \u201cBrexit means Brexit\u201d \u2014 and therefore they are deeply frustrated at Barniers attempt (as they see it) to bind the U.K. to much the same set of rules as EU members in terms of its ability to subsidize industry and control British fishing waters.<\/p>\n

David Frost, the U.K.s chief negotiator, said Brussels position was now that talks could not substantively progress in any area until the U.K. backs down and accepts \u201ccontinuity with EU state aid and fisheries policy.\u201d Downing Street \u2014 determined in particular to have leeway on state subsidies to assist the coronavirus recovery \u2014 insist they will do no such thing. So talks are frozen. The EUs stance, Frost said \u201cmakes it unnecessarily difficult to make progress.\u201d<\/p>\n

Barnier, spelling out the EUs position from the press podium at European Commission HQ, called a level-playing field on state aid and subsidies \u201ca non-negotiable precondition to grant access to our market of 450 million citizens, given the U.K.s geographic proximity and intensity of our economic exchanges.\u201d He declared himself \u201cdisappointed and concerned and surprised\u201d by the state of play.<\/p>\n

\nThe prediction appears to be that Downing Street will accept that no-deal will hurt them more than it hurts the EU \u2014 and cave in.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cI see that time is passing by, and that we are starting to take the risk of not being able to ratify the treaty by the end of the year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Both sides are now eyeing Octobers European Council meeting as a de facto deadline, to allow time to pin the deal down before the transition period ends at 11 p.m. U.K. time on December 31 \u2014 the moment Brexit rule changes will actually start to be felt by the businesses and citizens of the U.K. and the EU.<\/p>\n

Negotiating tactics<\/h3>\n

Brexit deadlines have come and gone in the past and given the tight timescales and other preoccupations, no-one can rule out that October deadline slipping. But, Barnier added: \u201cThis is a long complex task, any delay beyond the end of October, would entail a serious risk as to the successful outcome of this process.\u201d<\/p>\n

The next formal round of talks will take place in London from September 7. Between now and then, Barnier, Frost and their teams will remain in touch, U.K. officials said. In London, the idea of an accord being struck in September is not ruled out, but given how much distance remains between the two sides, the final run-in to the European Council summit \u2014 on October 15 and 16 \u2014 looks more likely. If that sounds familiar, its because it is: The past two fall summits have been dominated by Brexit. Last years was the historic one at which Boris Johnson clinched the Withdrawal Agreement that underpins the current talks.<\/p>\n

For now \u2014 as so often before in this process \u2014 Brussels thinks it holds most of the cards. Brexit talks have never been a negotiation between equals and EU officials believe the U.K. \u201cdesperately\u201d needs a deal (as one official put it last week)<\/a>; a fact that will force them to compromise sooner or later.<\/p>\n

In this light, Barniers chiding press conference comments and the refusal to engage substantively on other matters until the U.K. has backed down on state aid and fisheries can all be read simply as further means of applying pressure on London. The prediction appears to be that Downing Street will accept that no-deal will hurt them more than it hurts the EU \u2014 and cave in.<\/p>\n

Its a stratRead More \u2013 Source<\/a>
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\n <\/p>\n

politico<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc]
\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

LONDON \u2014 Its all set up for a last-gasp dash for a deal in October. Either that, or no deal at all.
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