Thats more than just a warning sign, according to experts. Steven Van Gucht, the virologist who chairs the governments scientific committee on coronavirus, told journalists Monday that a \u201csecond wave\u201d has already begun.<\/p>\n
Emmanuel Andr\u00e9, a microbiologist and associate professor of medicine at KU Leuven, has also sounded alarms, and began pressing for a tightening of social measures three weeks ago. \u201cWeve lost days, and this has made the problem much bigger, resulting in decreased individual freedom and an increased impact on the health of our people,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Belgium is far from unique in experiencing a resurgence of the virus. But whats particularly concerning for experts and policymakers alike is that Belgium appears to be particularly vulnerable. The country is densely populated and positioned at the heart of Europe, marked by cross-border travel, meaning it can easily acquire new infections from within and beyond its borders.<\/p>\n
\n\u201cIts important that the number of hospitalizations now stabilizes \u2014 otherwise it can go very quickly in the wrong direction\u201d \u2014 Steven Van Gucht, chair of the Belgian governments scientific committee on coronavirus<\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
Policymakers arent sitting on their hands, though. On July 27, the government ordered<\/a> tighter restrictions on social gatherings and more expansive rules on mask-wearing.<\/p>\n
Thats in line with what Andr\u00e9 had sought. He recently quit his post as government coordinator for testing and tracing amid disagreements over pandemic strategy \u2014 while remaining part of the governments expert advisory group \u2014 after his call for a renewed tightening of restrictions in mid-July was initially ignored.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Antwerp went even further and imposed a nighttime curfew. A key aim: Reducing the size of social events like parties and weddings, which authorities believe fueled the recent surge of cases.<\/p>\n
\u201cIts important that the number of hospitalizations now stabilizes \u2014 otherwise it can go very quickly in the wrong direction,\u201d said Van Gucht, at Mondays press conference.<\/p>\n
Viral hot spot<\/h3>\n
With all eyes on the infection rate in the weeks ahead, some leading officials are also still feeling burned. Theyre mindful of the reputational risk of Belgium returning to its contested status<\/a> as a top virus hot spot in Europe.<\/p>\n
To date, Belgium \u2014 with a population of around 11.5 million \u2014 has recorded more than 9,800 deaths attributed to COVID-19, mostly from the peak in March and April. That relatively high per capita fatality rate was a key reason cited in June by the Economist Intelligence Unit<\/a> (EIU), when it parked Belgium at the bottom of 21 wealthy countries it surveyed for how well they responded to the pandemic (indeed, below the United States).<\/p>\n
That ranking prompted a sharp rebuke from Health Minister Maggie De Block, who wrote<\/a> in POLITICO that the EIUs calculus overlooked factors such as the countrys now well-known accounting<\/a> for coronavirus deaths, which covers everything from established COVID-19 cases to suspected ones where there was no test. Such an approach yields a mortality figure that \u2014 obviously \u2014 is higher than one that looks solely at deaths where COVID-19 was confirmed.<\/p>\n
She also noted the rapid flattening of the countrys infections curve and its robust hospital capacity throughout the crisis.<\/p>\n
The report \u201cis a textbook example of what happens when you attempt to create a ranking using a small number of variables chosen for their availability, rather than for their relevance, with arbitrary cutoff points and time periods, and a complete lack of data curation,\u201d she wrote.<\/p>\n
Belgian policymakers and experts still stand by this accounting. They note that many other countries have since switched to the countrys methodology for counting COVID-19 deaths.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Medical staff don protective gear before starting their shift at a Brussels hospital | Kenzo Tribouillard\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
\u201cYou cant choose your methodology for political reasons,\u201d Van Gucht said. \u201cWe chose to count based on probability because at first a lot of people werent getting tested.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn other countries, you saw a gross underestimation, especially in care homes,\u201d he added. \u201cBut we decided to measure whats going on in the field, not just in hospitals.\u201d<\/p>\n
Andr\u00e9 pointed out that the practice of using a more inclusive mortality measure isnt unusual in public health. \u201cAt the start of an outbreak, when its a pathogen you dont know and testing isnt widespread, you need to assume that deaths are under-reported,\u201d he said. \u201cThis is something you always do in disease surveillance.\u201d<\/p>\n
Apples to oranges<\/h3>\n
Some experts now point to recent data on excess deaths<\/a> across Europe, which smooths out national differences in counting fatalities, to suggest that Belgium didnt do as badly as initially reported.<\/p>\n
The counting of excess deaths also takes into account deaths that were caused indirectly by the pandemic \u2014 for example, cases when other medical treatment was delayed or denied due to the stress on health systems forced by COVID-19.<\/p>\n
More refined and recent analysis seems to bear this out. For example, the U.K.s Office for National Statistics<\/a> released a study on Europe in late July showing that England, in fact, had the highest age-adjusted mortality rate across the entire course of the pandemic, for both under and over those aged 65. Belgium, by contrast, had lower than average mortality for those under 65, and came in only fourth place in excess mortality for those over 65 (after England, Spain and Scotland).<\/p>\n
More broadly, recent data \u201ccorresponds quite well with how we decided early on to count COVID-19 mortality,\u201d said Van Gucht. \u201cIt also shows how much the pandemic hit us outside of hospitals \u2014 in the care homes, where people werent getting tested until mid-April.\u201d<\/p>\n
This accounting also explains the age divide in the virus victims, he points out.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf your health care system becomes saturated, you see higher mortality among younger people, who cant access hospitals for other urgent care,\u201d he said, pointing to the \u201cproportionally higher mortality in younger people\u201d in the U.K.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat didnt happen in Belgium, where our ICU capacity never got higher than 60 percent,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
One challenge that Belgium will still have to face in a second wave is how to handle its elderly in care homes. Many often enter these facilities with a directive that they not be hospitalized, notes Andr\u00e9. Last spring, many care homes complied even as more and more residents got sick \u2014 leading to the virus spread.<\/p>\n
As the official who oversaw the ramping up of testing in mid-April to cover care homes, Andr\u00e9 was acutely aware of this challenge. Only when they expanded testing in care homes were authorities able to find out how infections were spreading \u2014 as many staff and residents who were asymptomatic or mildly ill passed on the virus to others.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were able to find outRead More \u2013 Source<\/a>
\n[contf]
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politico<\/a><\/h5>\n
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\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Belgium has learned an important lesson fro..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":150806,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-health"],"yoast_head":"\n
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