{"id":150783,"date":"2020-08-08T09:37:20","date_gmt":"2020-08-08T09:37:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/why-boris-johnsons-brexit-trade-deal-is-not-so-different-to-no-deal\/"},"modified":"2020-08-08T09:37:20","modified_gmt":"2020-08-08T09:37:20","slug":"why-boris-johnsons-brexit-trade-deal-is-not-so-different-to-no-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/why-boris-johnsons-brexit-trade-deal-is-not-so-different-to-no-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Boris Johnsons Brexit trade deal is not so different to no deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

LONDON \u2014 As the days tick away to the end of the post-Brexit transition period in December its all starting to feel very 2019.<\/p>\n

The U.K. government is preparing for the possibility of miles-long lorry queues in the southeast of England at the start of 2021; truckers heading for continental Europe may need a permit to enter the county of Kent; drug companies have been advised to stockpile six weeks worth of supplies in case their imports get caught in the snarl-up.<\/p>\n

The reason? Though Boris Johnson averted no-deal last year by securing a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement that covered the terms of Britains exit from the European Union, his proposed economic relationship with the EU really isnt that different \u2014 in terms of the practical potential for short-term disruption \u2014 from a clean-break no-deal.<\/p>\n

Rod McKenzie, managing director of policy and public affairs at the Road Haulage Association, said the freight industry was \u201cgoing through a groundhog day moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe government doesnt seem to have learned the lessons from what could have been a cliff-edge Brexit in October last year,\u201d he said, referring to the period immediately before the exit deal was agreed with Brussels.<\/p>\n

\nLeaving the EUs customs union and single market \u2014 as the U.K. intends to do in any scenario \u2014 means controls on goods traveling in either direction.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Now the government is being explicit that similar preparation will be needed with or without a trade deal.<\/p>\n

\u201cRegardless of the outcome of the negotiations, there will \u2026 be changes for which U.K. businesses trading with the EU need to prepare,\u201d Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said on Monday, setting out new proposals for how to keep traffic moving<\/a>. \u201cThis will be an important moment of change, and there is at least initially a risk of some additional friction at the border.\u201d<\/p>\n

The plan is predicated on the possibility of congestion lasting throughout the first half of 2021; a time when the government must also brace for a potential winter resurgence of the coronavirus.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Johnson and his chief adviser Dominic Cummings have set their face against an extension of the transition period that would spare businesses the short-term Brexit disruption on top of their COVID nightmare. Instead, government officials said, ministers are wargaming scenarios in which the virus surges back \u2014 just as the practical impact of Brexit finally makes itself felt.<\/p>\n

Take back (border) controls<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Leaving the EUs customs union and single market \u2014 as the U.K. intends to do in any scenario \u2014 means controls on goods traveling in either direction.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrom a business preparedness point of view, for many companies there is little difference between preparing to exit the transition period with or without a free-trade agreement in place,\u201d said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank.<\/p>\n

The government has already postponed plans for a fully-functioning set of customs controls for goods entering the U.K. to July 2021. Portrayed as a way to give businesses more time to prepare, it was also an acknowledgment that the border wouldnt be ready in time and that traffic flow would have to be prioritized to avoid major disruption.<\/p>\n

However, much also depends on how well-prepared businesses themselves will be for the limited number of checks that will <\/em>take place when entering the U.K. \u2014 and the far more significant checks planned on the other side of the Channel.<\/p>\n

French authorities are expected to \u201cimpose full EU customs and controlled goods checks on all goods travelling from GB to the EUs customs territory at Hauts-de-France,\u201d U.K. government consultation documents \u2014 published by Shapps Department for Transport this week \u2014 make clear.<\/p>\n

Ministers had hoped the transition period would give British businesses time to prepare, but COVID-19 has upturned those assumptions. According to a Confederation for British Industry (CBI) survey last week, one in five firms are less<\/em> prepared for the end of the transition now than they were in January.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A Brexit transition period that ends without a deal could quickly lead to backlogs at the Port of Dover | Justin Tallis\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Craig Beaumont, chief of external affairs at the Federation of Small Businesses, said that smaller firms were currently focused on simply surviving the impacts of COVID-19. \u201cThey are aware that negotiations are happening with the EU, and we do need an ambitious deal that keeps trade easy \u2026 but the focus right now remains firmly on COVID,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The governments own consultation documents say that \u2014 given how much the pandemic has occupied businesses time and energy \u2014 it would now be \u201cprudent to assume that overall border readiness could be at levels similar to those anticipated for October 2019.\u201d In other words, planning assumptions for Johnsons Brexit \u2014 as far as the border is concerned \u2014 are the same as those for last years no-deal scenario.<\/p>\n

Permit to enter Kent<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The details of the plan for Kent (known as Operation Brock) in the Department for Transports new consultation document \u2014published on a Monday in August without any fanfare \u2014 certainly make for sobering reading for the 245,000 British businesses whose external trade is exclusively with the EU.<\/p>\n

Ministers are contemplating radical ideas that could help keep traffic flowing to and from the Channel. The scale of the potential disruption anticipated in the papers came as a disappointment to a freight sector that had been reassured, according to the Logistics UK organization, that \u201cfriction would be minimized.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIn the context of businesses now being even less prepared than they would have been otherwise, an implementation period would be essential\u201d \u2014 Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform<\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Under extraordinary proposals, truckers driving on designated roads to Dover and the Eurotunnel at Folkestone will need a digital, 24-hour \u201cKent access permit\u201d which would be issued to them in advance of travel if they can confirm they have the required paperwork to take their goods across the border.<\/p>\n

Chris Yarsley, policy manager for Road Infrastructure at Logistics UK, said the \u201cKent permit\u201d plan was tantamount to creating an \u201cinternal U.K. border.\u201d Drivers who dont have one would face \u00a3300 fines and their lorries could be impounded if they dont pay.<\/p>\n

To what extent and for how long the contingency measures will actually be required is impossible to predict with certainty. Officials expect any \u201csignificant congestion\u201d to have ended by \u201cthe first half of 2021\u201d but are proposing that the new powers required for enforcement last until October 2021 \u2014 just in case.<\/p>\n

The government also acknowledges that any potential disruption could affect mediciRead More \u2013 Source<\/a>
\n[contf]
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\n <\/p>\n

politico<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc]
\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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