{"id":150588,"date":"2020-07-13T22:20:36","date_gmt":"2020-07-13T22:20:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/will-italys-summer-hiatus-last\/"},"modified":"2020-07-13T22:20:36","modified_gmt":"2020-07-13T22:20:36","slug":"will-italys-summer-hiatus-last","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/will-italys-summer-hiatus-last\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Italys summer hiatus last?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Call it the battle of the virologists.<\/p>\n

As Italy seeks a return to as-normal-as-possible after months of coronavirus lockdowns, a debate has broken out among the scientists studying the epidemic.<\/p>\n

The question: whether the virus that has killed more than 35,000 people in Italy, and more than half a million people around the world,has changed in a way that makes it less dangerous \u2014 and what that would mean for countries like Italy as they try to find a way to open up safely.<\/p>\n

Giuseppe Remuzzi, a nephrologist and the director of the Mario Negri Institute for pharmacological research, is among 10 experts who penned an op-ed<\/a> in late June in which they declared that \u201cunequivocal clinical evidence\u201d showed a marked reduction of coronavirus cases with symptoms.<\/p>\n

They noted that cases that require hospitalization are now rarer than at the height of the crisis in the spring, and they raised questions on whether asymptomatic carriers can still transmit the virus.<\/p>\n

\nThe claims being made by Remuzzi and his colleagues sparked criticism in Italy and around the world\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cThe concentration of viral RNA on the swab is so small that it does not infect anything,\u201d Remuzzi told POLITICO. He urged the development of tests that could determine whether an infected person is contagious.<\/p>\n

Only those who are positive should be isolated, he said, adding that preventive measures like social distancing, using face masks and washing hands were enough to contain the virus.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is nothing else to do,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The claims being made by Remuzzi and his colleagues sparked criticism in Italy and around the world. Assuming that the virus has become less dangerous, some scientists argued, is, well, dangerous.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat there are low viral charges is presumable, but it is not demonstrated,\u201d said Andrea De Maria, a professor of molecular immunology at the University of Genoa. Theres no diagnostic tool capable of quantifying the possibility of whether a patient is contagious, but only approximations, he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cIts like saying, without a scale, how much a sandbag weighs,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

All viruses do mutate over time. But while some scientists believe<\/a> that the coronavirus may have undergone a mutation in Italy in February, creating a strain that was able to rapidly spread across the world, few believe theres enough evidence to say that it has since become less deadly.<\/p>\n

De Maria said the virus that causes COVID-19 could behave like other coronaviruses, which replicate less during the summer, with fewer symptoms, but come back with a vengeance in cooler months.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe more the virus circulates [in the population], the more likely it will be,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the Italian health care system has nearly doubled the countrys ICU units and employed over 27,000 medical staff. The government has invested more in the public health care system in the past five months than it has over the past five years, a health ministry spokesman said.<\/p>\n

But, scientists warn, its not yet clear whether Italy is prepared for the possibility of a violent second wave in the fall.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Its not yet clear whether Italy is prepared for the possibility of a violent second wave | Andreas Solara\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n

\u201cI dont know if this system is able to withstand important multiple outbreaks and on a resumption of the transmission. Nobody can tell,\u201d said Andrea Crisanti, a professor of molecular biology at Imperial College London whos credited with helping the region of Veneto contain the epidemic through aggressive testing and contact tracing.<\/p>\n

Walking around Milan \u2014 the capital of Lombardy, the epicenter of the Italian epidemic \u2014 face masks and rules on social distancing remain prevalent, but theres little other evidence that its anything other than a normal summer. The bars and parks have reopened; theres traffic in the streets; and tourists have timidly returned<\/a> to the citys iconic monuments.<\/p>\n

The question is how long the summer respite will last.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a real danger that the outbreaks will restart and that the transmission will resume its force,\u201d said Crisanti. \u201cThis to me seems to be a certainty more than a risk.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe fact that there are always new cases, even asymptomatic, means that transmission is ongoing, and then there will be the risk of reimporting it.\u201d \u2014 Andrea De Maria<\/em>\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

New cases in Italy have been decreasing since the lockdown was lifted in early May, dispelling fears that lifting restrictions would spike the infection curve upward. But at the same time, the country registers a couple of hundred<\/a> new cases every day \u2014 a number that Read More \u2013 Source<\/a>
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politico<\/a><\/h5>\n

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Call it the battle of the virologists.<\/p>\n

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