{"id":143756,"date":"2020-05-02T18:40:58","date_gmt":"2020-05-02T18:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/in-search-of-the-formula-to-unlock-lockdown\/"},"modified":"2020-05-02T18:40:58","modified_gmt":"2020-05-02T18:40:58","slug":"in-search-of-the-formula-to-unlock-lockdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/in-search-of-the-formula-to-unlock-lockdown\/","title":{"rendered":"In search of the formula to unlock lockdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

LONDON \u2014 The route out of lockdown is less about finding a plan and more a search for a formula.<\/p>\n

Like many governments around the world, the U.K. is considering how \u2014 or even whether \u2014 to lift restrictions, ahead of the next legally mandated review on May 7.<\/p>\n

Each government faces the same dilemma: how to balance the need to protect jobs and livelihoods suffocated by lockdown, with the need to prevent a resurgence of the virus that could cost thousands more lives.<\/p>\n

The answers each country settles upon will likely be different \u2014 and there is likely to be an element of trial and error.<\/p>\n

Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, and one of Asias leading epidemiologists told POLITICO countries have \u201cthree main categories of interventions\u201d at their disposal during this period \u2014 or \u201cdials\u201d they can calibrate and adjust according to their own situation.<\/p>\n

\nThe \u201cvery clear red line\u201d in this decision-making process is hospital capacity, according Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

One, border restrictions: not to keep coronavirus out necessarily (that ship has sailed) but to \u201cmaintain the integrity of the local health system.\u201d Two, targeted quarantine and isolation of infected people, informed by testing and contact tracing. And three, \u201cphysical distancing.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUnder each category youve got a whole host of different things you may consider doing. Physical distancing can mean total lockdowns and curfews, or it can mean school closures or flexible work arrangements, or closing of bars and entertainment venues, but keeping restaurants open, or variations thereof,\u201d Leung said, speaking earlier this month.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven those three dials, you need to find your combination that is contextually acceptable but also would be able to give you health protection, economic preservation and social acceptance.\u201d<\/p>\n

As measures start to lift, this third consideration \u2014 social acceptance \u2014 is likely to become more complicated if countries move at very different speeds. Governments will be challenged to explain why, for instance, you can go to school in one European country<\/a>, but not in another, or why some borders remain open while others are closed.<\/p>\n

The \u201cvery clear red line\u201d in this decision-making process is hospital capacity, \u201cthat you do not exceed your carrying capacity in your ICUs or your respirator availability,\u201d Leung said. \u201cBut beyond that there are many, many other considerations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Whats more, this process could be one of \u201csuppress and lift,\u201d as Leung put it in a piece for the New York Times<\/a>. \u201cCycles during which restrictions are applied and relaxed, applied again and relaxed again, in ways that can keep the pandemic under control but at an acceptable economic and social cost,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

R we nearly there yet?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

In London, officials said, the decision-making process around how and whether to ease the lockdown will involve the governments independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies<\/a> (SAGE) drawing up a \u201csuite of options,\u201d based on different \u201ccombinations\u201d of liberalizing measures (for instance, reopening schools, reopening non-essential shops, or expanding peoples household \u201cbubble\u201d to include a few more people). Scientists will give ranged estimates of how each might impact on transmission of the virus \u2014 and in turn the risk that hospitals could be overwhelmed.<\/p>\n

Alongside, experts will model the likely impact of the U.K.s revived \u201ctrace and isolate\u201d strategy will have on transmission.<\/p>\n

Key to calculations is the basic reproduction number, the R0 (the average number of people one coronavirus-infected person passes the virus onto.) The weight the U.K. is giving this was emphasized at Thursdays daily government press conference where Johnson stated that \u201cnothing we do\u201d when trying to unlock the economy \u201cshould lift the R \u2026 back above one.\u201d<\/p>\n

An R above 1, Englands Chief Medical Officer and SAGE Vice Chair Chris Whitty made clear at Mondays press conference, leads back to \u201cexponential growth\u201d of the outbreak. R is currently estimated to be between 0.5 and 1 in the U.K., he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cSooner or later, depending how much above 1 it is, you [would] go back to a situation where the NHS is threatened to be overwhelmed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

While the scientists can model the effects of different measures on R, the decision about what R is acceptable \u2014 and therefore which combination of measures, if any to choose \u2014 is for politicians.<\/p>\n

Another SAGE member, epidemiological modeling expert Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, told Unherd<\/a> last week: \u201cAs a scientist I feel I can give some insight into what the consequences of certain decisions would be and indeed into potentially the sort of measures which would be needed to achieve a certain outcome. But really it is for decision-makers to make those decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Combination (un)lock<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A U.K. official woRead More \u2013 Source<\/a>
\n[contf]
\n[contfnew]
\n <\/p>\n

politico<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc]
\n[contfnewc]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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