Corbyns fate greatly depends on the unfolding Brexit drama, expected to climax in the coming weeks as the U.K. pushes for a deal before its scheduled exit in March 2019. But the impact of a Corbyn government, should he assume the reins of power, could be much more significant.<\/p>\n
While the prospect of a Corbyn government would likely make post-Brexit trade relations with Europe more straightforward in the short term, predictions of a socialist London have already set alarm bells ringing in Washington, according to U.S. officials asked to draw up memos for the State Department in case of another snap election this year.<\/p>\n
Corbyns long-held opposition to Western military intervention, hostility to NATO, support for revolutionary Latin American regimes and life-long determination to scrap Britains independent nuclear deterrent could reshape the United Kingdom in much more fundamental ways than its exit from the European Union.<\/p>\n
\nThe problem facing May is that Corbyns ideas are popular, even if polling suggests he personally is not.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
The party cannot trigger a general election \u2014 that power rests with the House of Commons and would need two-thirds of MPs to support it \u2014 but the more Prime Minister Theresa May gets ensnared by Brexit negotiations<\/a>, the more likely it is that Corbyn may get his chance.<\/p>\n
Corbyn promised a Britain in which the rich would be more heavily taxed, utilities and the railways would be nationalized, the government would invest in 400,000 jobs focused on tackling climate change, and large companies would be forced to give workers stakes of up to 10 percent and pay annual dividends to staff. He signaled Labour would end British backing for Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, immediately recognize a Palestinian state, and tilt firmly away from the U.S. as a key ally.<\/p>\n
\u201cLabours ideas have caught the mood of our time,\u201d Corbyn told the conference in his closing speech, adding wryly: \u201cIt isnt me saying that \u2014 its a former Conservative Treasury minister, Lord [Jim] ONeill. Ive never sought to capture the mood of a Tory minister before, but let me say to his lordship: Youre welcome. Come and join us in the new political mainstream.\u201d<\/p>\n
Underpinning the Labour leaderships confidence is a calculation that the shock Brexit referendum<\/a> and the resulting political instability has fueled the appetite for a radically different approach to government.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The more ferociously the press responds to his policies the better, said one senior Corbyn aide | Leon Neal\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, regarded by many in the party as the strategic power behind Corbyns popular appeal, was explicit in his speech to delegates on Monday. \u201cThe greater the mess we inherit, the more radical we have to be, the greater the need for change,\u201d he said. \u201cIts time to shift the balance of power in our country. Its time to give people back control over their lives.\u201d<\/p>\n
One lobbyist for a multinational company, who was struck by the new \u201cprofessionalization\u201d on display at the conference, remarked that the partys rhetoric has become strikingly similar to that of the Leave campaign during the 2016 EU referendum.<\/p>\n
\u201cIts all about taking back control,\u201d the lobbyist said.<\/p>\n
Corbyns new deal<\/h3>\n
The problem facing May is that Corbyns ideas are popular, even if polling suggests he personally is not.<\/p>\n
The more ferociously the press responds to his policies the better, said one senior Corbyn aide. Attention from broadcasters and publishers hands the party free publicity for popular policies and perfect material for a fresh social media onslaught.<\/p>\n
\u201cYouve got to make sure the Telegraph has [the announcement to double tax on second homes],\u201d the aide said. \u201cThey think all their readers have second homes so will put it on the front.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nPrime Minister Corbyn would present a major challenge for U.S. foreign policy.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u201cIts perfect,\u201d the aide added. \u201cIt means more people are talking about you, and you wouldnt believe how popular this stuff is.\u201d<\/p>\n
Corbyns closest aides believe there is an inevitability to Labours rise to power if they stay on this path and are not sidelined by Brexit.<\/p>\n
Labours membership now numbers more than 500,000, making it by far the biggest U.K. political party. Against all mainstream predictions, support for the party surged in the 2017 election.<\/p>\n
The Tories, far from alighting on a coherent response, are moving further away from the kind of \u201cred Toryism\u201d first offered by May, which Corbyns inner circle say is the greatest threat to them.<\/p>\n
Instead, Corbyns team says, the Tories have retreated to safe, small-c conservatism and traditionally austere economics, which can only be propped up by flag-waving nationalism for so long.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at the commemorations on the first anniversary of the Grenfell fire | Daniel Leal-Olivas\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n
\u201cThe positive message for Labour is that there are two pillars to Brexit,\u201d Labour Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer told a fringe meeting on Tuesday evening. \u201cThere is the deal with the EU: technical stuff. But there is the much bigger issue: What is the deal for Britain that is going to transform the country?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cDo you think the reason [the Tories] got 42 percent is because all those extra people wanted incremental change?\u201d said the senior Labour aide close to Corbyn said. \u201cIts ludicrous. They want Brexit, and whatever you think about Brexit, it is not incremental.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThey want radical change and the Tories are offering more of the same,\u201d the aide said.<\/p>\n
Change at home and abroad<\/h3>\n
Prime Minister Corbyn would present a major challenge for U.S. foreign policy.<\/p>\n
A Corbyn government, even Labour MPs admit, would all-but end the \u201cspecial\u201d security and military relationship between the U.S. and its pre-eminent ally.<\/p>\n
One of Corbyns most senior advisers, Andrew Murray, gave a glimpse of the direction a Corbyn government would take in a pre-conference article for the New Statesman<\/a>.<\/p>\n
Murray, a committed Marxist and defender of the Soviet Union, said Corbyns foreign policy radicalism is anathema to \u201cthe establishment\u201d in the U.K. and elsewhere.<\/p>\n
\nThis year, BP, Google, Visa, Bombardier and Fujitsu were all represented with stands at the Labour conference floor.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\u201cThey fear the popularity of Corbyns opposition to war, backing for global human rights and support for the Palestinian cause and their loss of control over the international narrative,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThe powers-that-be can perhaps live with a re-nationalized water industry but not, it seems, with any challenge to their aggressive capacities, repeatedly deployed in disastrous wars, and their decaying Cold War world view.\u201d<\/p>\n