{"id":13304,"date":"2017-11-01T21:09:31","date_gmt":"2017-11-01T21:09:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/positive-surprise-as-protectionism-fears-not-bearing-out\/"},"modified":"2017-11-01T21:09:55","modified_gmt":"2017-11-01T21:09:55","slug":"positive-surprise-as-protectionism-fears-not-bearing-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/positive-surprise-as-protectionism-fears-not-bearing-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Positive Surprise as Protectionism Fears Not Bearing Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/1-59f7524f35757-1.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Despite Trump election and Brexit, free trade appears to be growing stronger<\/p>\n<p>Investors who worried that recent protectionist sentiment would slow free trade can breathe easier. Over the last 18+ months, Brexit, Donald Trump\u2019s election, nationalist sentiment in Europe and other developments sparked investor fear of protectionism and trade wars. Yet free trade remains alive and well, with few moves from rhetoric to actual policy. The fear doesn\u2019t match the facts, and we believe a massive influx of new trade barriers remains unlikely to end the bull market.<\/p>\n<p>Whilst protectionist sentiment could eventually translate into protectionist policy, we see the situation now as far more benign than many predicted. In some ways, the UK vote on Brexit called into question the UK-EU trading relationship, and both Trump and Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders spent much of their campaigns railing against free trade. Trump, for instance, claimed he would exit the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), renegotiate or exit the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and declare China a currency manipulator\u2014perhaps the first step on the way to tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>Whilst Brexit had many social elements and wasn\u2019t just about economics, it did lead to worries that negotiators would weigh social concerns like the European Court of Justice\u2019s reach and immigration control against trade. Outside the UK, growing nationalist sentiment in Europe and its possible impact on potential mergers caused some jitters, as well.<\/p>\n<p>Reality, however, doesn\u2019t always match sentiment, and it\u2019s important for investors to track actual facts on the ground. If they do, they\u2019ll see political leaders haven\u2019t taken many concrete steps to slow the free flow of trade or block the global supply chain. We\u2019re optimistic it won\u2019t happen anytime soon.<\/p>\n<h2>Trump\u2019s tariffs<\/h2>\n<p>Trump campaigned on a protectionist platform, but he hasn\u2019t done much to actually advance one. He didn\u2019t name China a currency manipulator or pull out of NAFTA. He did direct the Commerce Department to investigate barriers against non-US steel, which is potentially a precursor to new tariffs, but every US president for the past 50 years has slapped tariffs on imported steel, so Trump isn\u2019t breaking any new ground here.<\/p>\n<p>The barriers Trump did institute\u2014on softwood lumber imports from Canada\u2014were smaller than anticipated and part of a long dispute that predates Trump\u2019s political career by decades. Canadian producers\u2019 stock prices rallied on news of Trump\u2019s tariffs, as big a sign as any that the industry didn\u2019t take them too seriously. Although Trump removed the US from TPP, the deal hadn\u2019t gone into effect yet and was never guaranteed to, considering other countries face difficulty ratifying it. Trump wants to renegotiate NAFTA, but his plan calls for <em>deepening<\/em> trade ties by modernizing the deal to include e-commerce. If you want to stop globalization, this wouldn\u2019t appear to get you there.<\/p>\n<h2>Brexit\u2019s impact on trade<\/h2>\n<p>Brexit hasn\u2019t had much impact on trade, either, and Prime Minister <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/people\/theresa-may\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Theresa May<\/a> seems to consider signing new trade deals a high priority. Although May originally seemed unenthusiastic about a lengthy post-Brexit transition deal that would temporarily keep Britain in the EU\u2019s single market, that position appears to be softening. She has also said her objective in UK-EU trade talks is to establish a broad free-trade agreement. Whilst time will tell, neither side appears keen to jack up trade barriers.<\/p>\n<p>Brexit could even enhance global trade, something few would have believed a year ago. That\u2019s because post-Brexit, the UK will be free to negotiate bilateral deals with other nations around the world. May could enter into deals with the EU and elsewhere. The US and Australia have already shown interest.<\/p>\n<p>Whilst the UK focuses on Brexit, the EU continues to promote free trade. In February, the European Parliament approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA)\u2014a free-trade deal with Canada estimated to slash tariffs on 98% of goods. National parliaments still need to approve the deal, but preliminary implementation is beginning. In July, the EU announced an agreement in principle on a free-trade deal with Japan, the crowning result of four years of talks. Whilst this is a long way from completion\u2014with parliamentary approval needed on both sides\u2014it is a step toward freer trade between two major regions. If enacted, the deal is estimated to reduce tariffs on 99% of bilateral goods traded.<\/p>\n<p>Data also argue against any setback in free trade. After contracting for most of 2015 and 2016, US, EU and Japanese exports and imports rebounded and are now growing quite strongly. Exhibits 1 and 2 illustrate this. Similarly, exports and imports for Taiwan, China and Korea bounced back.<\/p>\n<h2>Exhibit 1: Exports \u2013 US, EU, and Japan<\/h2>\n<p>Source: FactSet, as of 21\/7\/2017. May 2008 \u2013 May 2017.<\/p>\n<h2>Exhibit 2: Imports\u2014US, EU, and Japan<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/2-59f7525b505e9.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Source: FactSet, as of 21\/7\/2017. May 2008 \u2013 May 2017.<\/p>\n<p>From our perspective, these data prove current fears of protectionism simply don\u2019t match the facts. Additionally, as world trade rebounds, it could come to the aid of economic and profit growth globally. Many investors don\u2019t yet realize this, but as they come back and focus on reality instead of rhetoric, we believe they\u2019ll get over their protectionism fears, gain confidence, and bid up stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Investing in equity markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any capital invested will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future performance. The value of investments and the income from them will fluctuate with world equity markets and international currency exchange rates.<\/p>\n<p><em>Fisher Investments Europe Limited, trading as Fisher Investments UK, is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA Number 191609) and is registered in England (Company Number 3850593). Fisher Investments Europe Limited Headquarters: 2nd Floor, 6-10 Whitfield Street, London, W1T 2RE, United Kingdom. Fisher Investments Europe Limited\u2019s parent company, Fisher Asset Management, LLC, trading under the name Fisher Investments, is established in the USA and regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Investment management services are provided by Fisher Investments.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This document constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments UK and Fisher Investments, and should not be regarded as personalised investment or tax advice or as a representation of their performance or that of their clients. No assurances are made that they will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new information, analysis or reconsideration. In addition, no assurances are made regarding the accuracy of any forecast made herein. Not all past forecasts have been, nor future forecasts may be, as accurate as any contained herein.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Let&#039;s block ads!<\/a><\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/blockads.fivefilters.org\/acceptable.html\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">(Why?)<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/274830\/positive-surprise-protectionism-fears-not-bearing-out\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">Original Article<\/a><\/p>\n<div id=\"contfix\">\n<div id=\"contdto\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/latestcb20150503233945.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<h4 id=\"contfixlink\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cityam.com\/\" rel=\"noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\">CityAM<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite Trump election and Brexit, free trade appears to be ..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13318,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - 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