{"id":129435,"date":"2019-08-14T18:20:06","date_gmt":"2019-08-14T18:20:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/"},"modified":"2019-08-14T18:20:06","modified_gmt":"2019-08-14T18:20:06","slug":"beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days"},"content":{"rendered":"

Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions League campaign \u2013 with that extraordinary semi-final comeback against Barcelona to the fore \u2013 was never going to have every single club fan in the country up on their feet and cheering.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the weeks from the teams victory over Spurs in June to the start of the new season this week have been a reminder of just how many Liverpool supporters there are.<\/p>\n

We are not just talking about the 750,000 people who turned out to cheer the players during an open-top bus parade through Liverpool the day after the final.<\/p>\n

No, the phenomenal success the club enjoyed in the 1970s and 1980 has ensured a surprising number of fans up and down the country \u2013 and largely of a certain vintage.<\/p>\n

As they now look confidently towards the new Premiership season and the possibility of going one better than last terms runner-up position, however, to what degree we wonder were their younger selves guilty of the behavioural sin of base rate neglect.<\/p>\n

Base rate neglect<\/h3>\n

As we have discussed before \u2013 also in a football context on the subject of Swindon Town FC and statistical analysis<\/a> \u2013 this has nothing to do with interest rates but involves attributing more weight to newer or more immediate information (Liverpool seemingly winning trophies at will over two decades) and less to more general probabilities (great teams do not stay great for ever; other clubs grow richer and more successful).<\/p>\n

Read more:<\/strong>
\u2013 What is value investing?<\/a>
\u2013 Value investing will survive Fortnite \u2013 and other tech disruptors<\/a>
\u2013 A lesson in the realities of ESG \u2013 from reality TV<\/a><\/p>\n

GET A WEEKLY ROUND UP OF THE BEST VALUE PERSPECTIVE POSTS<\/a><\/p>\n

On that latter point, just think about all the thousands and thousands of fans who invested in Liverpool on the strength of the clubs dominance and their experience since.<\/p>\n

In Premiership terms, as the following chart shows, the clubs record has not been disastrous \u2013 in the last 30 years, it has never finished lower than eighth \u2013 but, equally, those fans would surely have been hoping for more than being runners-up four times.<\/p>\n

Liverpool FC League position: 1980-2018<\/h3>\n
\"liverpool_league_rank.JPG\"\/<\/figure>\n

Source: Schroders<\/p>\n

To be fair, since last winning the Premiership, the club has of course been successful in other competitions \u2013 most notably in the Champions League, where this years success was matched by the Miracle of Istanbul in 2005.<\/p>\n

We can put that all in perspective with the following chart, which awards points by competition win: Premiership (5), Champions League (4), other European trophies (3), FA Cup (2) and League Cup (1).<\/p>\n

Liverpool FC success <\/h3>\n
\"liverpool_success_points.JPG\"\/<\/figure>\n

Source: Schroders<\/p>\n

We would immediately concede the chart is hugely arbitrary \u2013 particularly the minus five points for Wearing white suits to an FA Cup final, which is why there is a negative score for 1996.<\/p>\n

Sartorial swipes aside, however, it does serve to illustrate the successes that have come for Liverpool \u2013 and there are certainly more than for my own team, Crystal Palace \u2013 have been fewer and further between than the glory decades.<\/p>\n

And just as picking a team to support because it is enjoying a period of success in your youth does not mean you will be basking in the same levels of reflected glory in later years, so it goes in investing.<\/p>\n

When you are about to ignore an expensive valuation to buy into a company that appears to be doing brilliantly and looks set to take over the world for years to come, remember those Liverpool fans who have not won a league title in 30 years.<\/p>\n

And certainly dont forget the importance of base rates as an aid to more objective decision-making.<\/p>\n

Andrew Evans is an author on The Value Perspective<\/a>, a blog<\/a> about value investing<\/a>. It is a long-term investing approach which focuses on exploiting swings in stock market sentiment, targeting companies wRead More<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":129436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"\nBeware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Business News Report\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Business-NewsReport-328225811095934\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"160\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"infopal11\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@BNReport\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@BNReport\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"infopal11\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"infopal11\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/19d1c5a2dd7f60584a09de4a7805d68f\"},\"headline\":\"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":640,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/08\\\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Finance\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/\",\"name\":\"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/08\\\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00\",\"description\":\"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/08\\\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/08\\\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg\",\"width\":360,\"height\":160},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Business News Report\",\"description\":\"Latest News on the World of Politics & Business\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"\u0628\u0632\u0646\u0633 \u0631\u064a\u0628\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/12\\\/LOGO2.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2020\\\/12\\\/LOGO2.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":50,\"caption\":\"\u0628\u0632\u0646\u0633 \u0631\u064a\u0628\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/Business-NewsReport-328225811095934\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/BNReport\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/business.newsreport\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/19d1c5a2dd7f60584a09de4a7805d68f\",\"name\":\"infopal11\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.bnreport.com\\\/en\\\/author\\\/infopal11\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report","description":"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report","og_description":"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..","og_url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/","og_site_name":"Business News Report","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Business-NewsReport-328225811095934\/","article_published_time":"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00","og_image":[{"width":360,"height":160,"url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"infopal11","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@BNReport","twitter_site":"@BNReport","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"infopal11","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/"},"author":{"name":"infopal11","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/19d1c5a2dd7f60584a09de4a7805d68f"},"headline":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days","datePublished":"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/"},"wordCount":640,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg","articleSection":["Finance"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/","name":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days - Business News Report","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg","datePublished":"2019-08-14T18:20:06+00:00","description":"Football being what it is, Liverpools triumphant Champions L..","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/football-stadium-360x160.jpg","width":360,"height":160},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/beware-picking-an-investment-or-a-football-team-for-its-glory-days\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0629","item":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Beware picking an investment \u2013 or a football team \u2013 for its glory days"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/","name":"Business News Report","description":"Latest News on the World of Politics & Business","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#organization","name":"\u0628\u0632\u0646\u0633 \u0631\u064a\u0628\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/LOGO2.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/LOGO2.png","width":200,"height":50,"caption":"\u0628\u0632\u0646\u0633 \u0631\u064a\u0628\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u0628\u0627\u0631\u064a"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Business-NewsReport-328225811095934\/","https:\/\/x.com\/BNReport","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/business.newsreport"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/19d1c5a2dd7f60584a09de4a7805d68f","name":"infopal11","url":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/author\/infopal11\/"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129435"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129435\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/129436"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}