{"id":106768,"date":"2018-12-19T12:01:34","date_gmt":"2018-12-19T12:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/indias-stocks-held-hostage-to-fed-cycle-says-s-naren\/"},"modified":"2018-12-19T12:01:34","modified_gmt":"2018-12-19T12:01:34","slug":"indias-stocks-held-hostage-to-fed-cycle-says-s-naren","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/indias-stocks-held-hostage-to-fed-cycle-says-s-naren\/","title":{"rendered":"India’s stocks held hostage to Fed cycle, says S Naren"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Ameya Karve
<\/strong>
For all the domestic drivers of Indias stocks \u2014 from oil to elections to shadow banking shakeouts \u2014 the U.S. Federal Reserve holds the most sway, according to the nations biggest money manager.<\/p>\n

Sankaran Naren, who helps manage 3.1 trillion rupees ($44 billion) as chief investment officer at ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co., says investors need to brace for a run of constrained returns that will last until the Feds Jerome Powell makes a policy U-turn. Key Indian equity indexes are up less than 10 percent this year, and gauges of mid- and small-sized companies are poised for their first yearly decline since 2013.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce the U.S. interest-rate cycle changes and one moves to a situation where they say we are done with the quantitative tightening, then one may have a much more secular bull market in emerging markets and India,\u201d Naren said in an interview in Mumbai last week. \u201cWe are in an accumulation phase of investing, where the near-term returns arent likely to be very high."<\/p>\n

While the U.S. central banks influence on emerging assets is hardly an unknown phenomenon, Indias $2 trillion stock market has also been whipsawed in recent months by homegrown narratives. For Naren, those issues \u2013 including speculation on Prime Minister Narendra Modis election prospects in 2019, and a cash crunch in the non-bank financing sector \u2013 will mostly be resolved in the next year, leaving the Fed as the biggest factor.<\/p>\n

Investors around the world will find out later on Wednesday whether Fed officials will reduce their "dot plot" trajectory for 2019, which currently implies three interest-rate hikes. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg have dialed back their expectations to two.<\/p>\n

For the next year at least, Naren doesnt see investments in Indian equities fetching more than \u201cmid-teen\u201d percentage in gains. \u201cWe shouldnt talk of multi-baggers now, we cant expect stocks doubling and one has to invest with expectations of lower returns than that,\u201d he said. The $4.1 billion ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund \u2014 the biggest that Naren manages \u2014 has returned 12.85 percent annually in the past five years, the best among its peers for that period, according to Value Research Ltd.<\/p>\n

A more dovish Fed could help bring foreign investors back to India: theyve sold more than $4 billion of the nations shares so far in 2018, the first year of outflows since 2011. The Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/a> has outperformed the MSCI<\/a> India and the MSCI Emerging Markets indexes in the past three years.<\/p>\n

Still, local flows into equity funds have helped cushion markets. Investors have poured 1.2 trillion rupees into stock mutual funds this year, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India. Naren likes small- and mid-caps, infrastructure stocks, banks and consumption-linked shares, he said. Non-bank lenders still arent cheap enough, he added.<\/p>\n

Naren also said:<\/strong>
\u201cWe are currently placed in the middle of greed and fear. We are telling people that one shouldnt be too bearish or too bullish.\u201d \u201cThe last accumulation phase in Indian markets was between 2010 and 2013, where people who invested got returns in the later years.\u201d \u201cFlows in fixed income from retail investors are much lower than what I would like to see. I would like to see more flows in moderate-duration corporate debt funds as they give good returns.\u201d \u201cToo much political uncertainty isnt good for markets, it doesnt help decision making for companies.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n

Original Article<\/a>
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ET Markets<\/a><\/h5>\n

[contfnewc]
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By Ameya Karve<\/p>\n

For all the domestic drivers of Indias stock..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":106769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[202],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance"],"yoast_head":"\nIndia's stocks held hostage to Fed cycle, says S Naren - Business News Report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By Ameya Karve For all the domestic drivers of Indias stock..\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bnreport.com\/en\/indias-stocks-held-hostage-to-fed-cycle-says-s-naren\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"India's stocks held hostage to Fed cycle, says S Naren - 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